What is the purpose and role of Turkey in Libya?
Turkey-backed Syrian Islamic mercenary fighters, 2019. Photo: Reuters
Sardar Mesto | Exclusive to Ekurd.net
The main stream of Western media reports claims that the real motive for Turkey’s direct intervention in the Libyan conflict is the creation of a neo-Ottoman empire in the region. Literally, “empire” is understood as a chain of countries where power is under the influence of Turkish influence, usually associated with the Muslim Brotherhood. However, the creation of this chain is far from reality, or even completely impossible, despite the fact that Erdogan holds in his hands the levers of influence on Tripoli.
The agreements of Turkey with the Government of National Accord (GNA) are not intended to promote the creation of an “empire,” but are only aimed at giving “legitimacy” to the Turkish military presence in a region where otherwise the Ankara rivals would dominate: the UAE, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, etc.
In other words, it is more a struggle for power between the countries of the region than an attempt to restore the empire. Turkey’s ambitions are further limited by the fact that it’s only ally in the region, the GNA, which controls less than 30% of Libyan territory and about half the population, is faced with the onslaught of Khalifa Haftar, who enjoys the support of countries competing with Ankara.
The issue of the legality of Turkey’s intervention can theoretically be resolved through the GNA, which, as an internationally recognized government, has the legal right to “invite” Erdogan and his troops to Libya. However, Haftar’s demonstrative departure from the summit made it clear that this step would not lead to truly massive changes in the country’s internal balance of power.
In addition to the presence of countries in the region supporting the Libyan national army, providing material support to the Haftar army, Turkey faced additional difficulties, over the past month it lost the support of Tunisia and Algeria, these countries have made it clear that they do not share Turkish plans and are not going to present their military bases for conducting military operations against the Haftar forces.
One of the most important reasons for their decisions is that Turkey does not just send troops to Libya; it also moves her Syrian militias there. This fact not only does not bring benefits, but also repels Turkish “friends” from the conflict, who do not want to be drawn into yet another Turkish “jihadist adventure” and the growing threat of the spread of Islamic militancy.
In view of the weak positions in Libya and the obstacles that Ankara faces both from the side of its allies and from its rivals, it will act more restrained. Turkish intervention in the Libyan conflict may increase Tripoli’s dependence on Ankara. Turkey will inevitably become a forceful intermediary in the region, like the situation in Syria, where it is a participant in the Astana and Sochi peace processes, continues to defend its interests by military means. However, even after several years of hostilities, Erdogan’s intervention in Syria did not pay off in terms of promoting the Turkish “neo-Ottoman Empire.”
Therefore, the only real benefit that Turkey can get is to gain more influence on the outcome of the conflict. By sending troops and militias, Erdogan creates considerable space for tactical manipulations. But the opportunity to change the balance of power in favor of Tripoli, having actually defeated Haftar, is extremely small and very far from implementation, not to mention the creation of a “neo-Ottoman empire.”
The views expressed are the author’s alone and do not necessarily represent the views of Ekurd.net or its editors.
Copyright © 2020 Ekurd.net. All rights reserved
Comments
Loading...
