Iraq News Now

My inspiration this week is Marx. Groucho that is. He once quipped: "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others." A cheap shot would be applying this to Prime Minister Theresa May. She agreed a treaty with the EU last year but when it was massively defeated in the Commons she engineered a new motion with proposed changes to the treaty she previously said was unchangeable and necessary.

But another way of looking at it is that she bowed to the concerns of parliament and is seeking a plan that might win a majority, and keep her party together, if she can persuade the EU to move in some way. Then critics say that is unicorn territory because the EU simply won't make such changes. We will see. Their words should not be taken at face value in what is clearly a high stakes poker game.

There is a considerable churn in the Commons on various alternatives. There could be ministerial resignations and another possibility is a fresh election to secure a mandate and a perhaps long delay in departure from the EU.

Assuming we leave the EU, there will probably be a Chilcot-type inquiry into how it happened. Brexit could also ignite splits in the two major parties and maybe especially in Labour where there are profound and bitter differences on hot button issues such as Brexit, Venezuela, and anti-Semitism.

The paradox is that we may leave the EU but move towards a more European style of politics: a proportional voting system, which would allow the emergence of soft left, hard left, soft right and hard right parties.

The two main parties are broad churches but, judging by the often vehement and vicious denunciations within each party, are fit to burst. The Conservative Party contains a vocal minority of ultra-Brexit MPs. A significant minority of Labour Party members, and many MPs, despair about the leadership's hard-left direction and feel it is no longer the party they joined.

There is talk of a new centrist formation being formed, maybe imminently, with the support of the Harry Potter author, JK Rowling, and which could unite Brexit dissidents in the two main parties in some sort of alliance with the Liberal Democrats. Other Labour MPs are cheesed off with Corbyn but are not signed up remainers.  Some Labour MPs know the hard-left is not as tolerant of dissent, as former Labour leaders were to the likes of Jeremy Corbyn, and will seek their deselection.

Brexit is the proximate cause of splits but is not the only issue in a considered realignment of politics. A centrist formation could break the logjam and could include a social democratic faction to develop new perspectives that has been restrained by the immediate needs of fire-fighting the hard left within Labour. A centrist grouping may then be a bridge to a new division of politics that seeks to marginalise extremes on left and right.

The Times columnist and former Conservative MP, Matthew Parris recently wrote that social democrats and liberal Conservatives, these two great tribes in political philosophy, often settle for similar solutions and co-operate but come from different places in the head and heart.

He defines the divide well: 'A liberal Conservative is anchored in a preference for individual freedom. The expression “the state” does not land comfortably in our ear. “The free market”, “choice”, “competition” do. We’re wary of — not always hostile to but wary of — government spending more, interfering more, taxing more. The condition of the poorer in society concerns us always and greatly, but we do not think human failure can or should be abolished. For social democrats the free market and competition are things to be used because (and when) they “work”; but not friends...'

Philosophy is not the only obstacle. So is Psephology because the current electoral system discourages new parties. The standard Labour case for unity is the fate of the Social Democratic Party, which split from Labour in 1981. The SDP began with 50 percent support in opinion polls and nearly beat Labour in the 1983 election but faded away.

Yet, that is not the whole story. SDP success encouraged Labour moderates to defeat hard-left influence and the entryism of organised Trotskyist factions. That succeeded and led to the victory of Tony Blair in 1997. Furthermore, the political economy that underpinned Labour is disappearing as identity issues trump class.

The other Marx, Karl, famously said that history repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce. The Brexit imbroglio certainly contains both elements but it's anyone's guess how it will be resolved in the roughly 900 hours left before the UK is supposed to leave the EU.

Gary Kent is the Secretary of the All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG). He writes this column for Rudaw in a personal capacity. The address for the all-party group is appgkurdistan@gmail.com. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.