Iraq News Now

Araz Barwari | Exclusive to Ekurd.net

US military forces have recently announced that they are pulling out of some bases in iraq. However, It’s still unclear whether the US plan is to gradually and completely move its forces out of Iraq or to only pull out from certain military bases that are more vulnerable and reachable to attacks of Katyusha rockets and mortar shells of Iranian proxy Shia militias in Iraq.

Regardless of their intentions and future plans, US military and other coalition forces seem to be facing security problems in Iraq. Because their military bases have come under Katyusha rockets fire by Iranian proxy militias causing casualties, property and equipment damages.

Basically, there are few problems that are preventing the US military and all collation soldiers from having total sense of security and peace in Iraq.The first problem is Iranian proxy Shia militias in Iraq want to kick US military out of Iraq by force. They are firing few rockets here and few rockets there at coalition military bases with the aim to harass them, deny them peace and security and possibly kill them.

Sometimes, they surprisingly and unexpectedly firie dozens of Katyusha rockets together at their (US military) separate and joint military bases with Iraqi military forces. And these rockets apparently are scoring death numbers among the coalition forces. And apparently, neither Iraqi security forces nor coalition forces can not stop the perpetrators from firing these rockets because they continue hitting and causing casualties and damages at the coalition forces bases up until recent days.

In the meantime, it’s still unknown whether US military has not yet deployed Counter Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar (C-RAM) system to defend its military forces and encounter the Katyusha rockets. Or the CRAM system could have already been deployed n the their military bases, but might have not been able to intercept and blow up all the incoming Katyusha rockets in the air before they cause death and other damages. However, I assume US military has CRAM air defense system in Iraq because they showed a picture of a test-fire of a C-RAM in 2010, in Balad, military base in Iraq.

The second problem is, US military forces can not detect and strike the real perpetrators and attackers of their military personal in Iraq. They don’t have direct evidence, videos and photos of the attackers to present a legal case against those Iranian proxy Shia militia in Iraq. US is only suspicious about Hezbollah groups carrying out these attacks against coalition forces in Iraq.It seems hard for US military to eliminate the threats of these bad guys and put an end to this dangerous situation in Iraq Partly because US is facing a guerrilla warfare battle with these Shia militias.

Iranian proxy Shia militias are secretive groups. They have gone through military training by Iranian Quds forces.These militias operate in different countries. They serve the interests of Iran in the region. When they go out to fire rockets at US military bases, they use guerrilla tactics that are hard to beat easily because you need to use advanced military weapons, constant air and ground reconnaissance, and intelligence gathering. You will also need to spend a lot of time, hard work, and human and financial resources to be able to totally stop their attacks and beat them for once and all.

These Shia militias usually gather in small groups secretly. They plan to launch attacks against US, Israel and Saudi Arabia interests secretly. They have storages of different Iranian made weapons. They cover their rocket launchers in secret houses and business buildings. They wear civilian clothes. They live in secretive places among civilians to avoid being seen and hit by US drones and jet fighters. They get weapons from Iran as many pieces as they need.They use civilian cars for carrying and moving their weapons such as Katyusha rocket launchers, mortars and other ammunition. And after they fire rockets, they either hide or leave their heavy weapons and vehicles behind and run away with civilian cars to civilian areas. And they quickly blend with civilians before the Iraqi security forces rush to the scene and catch them and even before US military jet fighters and drones fly to the sky, pinpoint and strike them.

Furthermore, Shia militias are fighting in their homeland and they have the support of the Shia local population. They also enjoy secretive support from Iraq government institutions and Iran.They can get intelligence, money, logistics, and as many rocket launchers as they need from Iran because they fight for Iran.

In addition to that, members of these secretive Shia militias who call themselves with different revolutionary names, even serve in the ranks of Iraqi national army. And who knows, they might even play double deal games with US military forces in Iraq. In fact, They can act as friends to US soldiers during daylight in the same military base they do training together, , but can turn to a real enemy to US forces in the dark night. As we have learned in the past that secret loyal Taliban fighters who joined the national army of Afghanistan, used this double dealing games and tactic against coalition forces in Afghanistan.They deceived and spied on American soldiers, their locations, movements, plans and equipments. And they planned accordingly and killed many collation soldiers in this way.

The third problem is, US military forces are striking Iraqi military bases in retaliation of these rocket attacks. And they usually and randomly pick an Iraqi military base of popular mobilization forces and strike them from the air and kill some humans that are not necessarily the same bad guys who have fired rockets at US military forces. And this usually happens because US military forces can not catch and strike the real perpetrators and attackers in time of assault So they choose to strike at their alleged weapons facilities, friends and other Iraqi Shia military members, something that has made Iraqi government angry at US military forces.

Meanwhile,there is no reports saying US military have used CRAM air defense system against Shia militias Katyusha rockets and mortars when their military bases came under rocket fire. But either ways CRAM system doesn’t guarantee the safety of the military bases 100% as it can not intercept all incoming rockets. Even if it was used to intercept the Shia militias Katyusha rockets, there’s still a very high chance that out of hundreds of rockets, few would go through the air defense network unintercepted and end up killing people.and military personnel.

As a matter of fact, Israel has a very advanced CRAM air defense system called Iron Dome which is reportedly considered to be the top CRAM air defense system of the world. But according to Israeli military officials the system doesn’t guarantee 100 % that it can intercept all enemy incoming Katyusha rockets especially if they are fired in big numbers at once.

Iron Dome was put in test by Israeli military against Hamas rockets.The test came when IDF troops attacked Hamas positions in the Gaza strip in July 2014. Gaza militants launched around 4,600 rockets and mortar shells in response, around one-quarter of which landed near areas populated by Israeli civilians. The six Iron Dome batteries were activated hastily reinforced with three more. Together, they shot-down 735 rockets and mortar shells and failed to intercept around seventy, consistent with an 85 percent to 90 percent success rate claimed by the IDF. Again, this shows that all number of Katyusha rockets and mortar shells can not be totally intercepted and exploded in the air by CRAM air defense systems, especially if they are fired simultaneously, massively and in huge numbers.

Ironically, Katyusha is an old Russian made weapon that is cheaply manufactured is still challenging modern advanced weapons like CRAM system.Katyusha It has short range rockets. They are, imprecise and can not be guided by raders or GPS satellites. But it’s easy to move it around and use it in guerrilla warfare.

Altogether, despite the invention of modern anti Katyusha rockets and mortars systems like CRAM, Katyusha remains an effective weapon in the battle. It can cause both mental and physical damages to a powerful military forces especially when used in guerrilla warfare.

For US and coalition forces to keep their military and civilian personal lives and military bases safe from Shia militias Katyusha rockets in Iraq, they need to first invest on both ground and air intelligent gathering about the hidden headquarters, weapon and training facilities of these Shi’a militias. US also need to monitor their movements and activities through spying drones and orbiting satellite to carry preemptive strikes and kill the real perpetrators who fired rockets at US military bases and killed American and coalition soldiers. And second, US needs to guard it’s military bases 24 hours with drones and possibly. with helicopters. Thirdly, CRAM system should be active and in alert in large numbers for 24 hours. This will very much reduce the chances of Katyusha rockets hitting their military bases and causing casualties and other damages. CRAM system need to be deployed in large numbers this will empower the CRAM rocket intercept network.

If coalition forces choose to stay in Iraq, they will have a tough and costly task to do in order to be able to protect it’s solders from being hurt by Iranian proxy Shia militias in Iraq. In fact, the harassment of Shi’a militias rockets towards coalition forces can gradually lead to the development of psychologically problems for coalition forces in Iraq if not stopped and intercepted.. Living in such a worrisome and stressful situations can definitely hurt mental health of US soldiers in those stationery military bases as they would need to be extra careful and constantly, watch for 24 hours or be in alert and prepared to take cover in bunkers or in buildings for their safety. In fact, the air defense unites of CRAM system must have their eyes locked on radars screens and their fingers on computer mouse and buttons for 24 hours, in case a Katyusha rocket or a mortar shell is flying towards their military base.it would be a very stressful and fearful environment for the US soldiers to live in.Eventually, the situation can cause depression, paranoia and hallucinations to American soldiers in the long run.

Despite US military having such an advanced military technology and capability such as spying satellites, drones, helicopters, and patriot and CRAMPS air defense system, it failed to protect it’s bases and military personnel from Katyusha rockets as the casualties and damage the rockets have caused in the past are evidence to that. US will either choose to stay in Iraq at whatever costs it may bear, and protect it’s solders from being killed in Iraq by using it’s advanced military technology or it may eventually need to launch a full scale war against Iran or may choose to negotiate a deal with Iran temporarily in-order to ease off this tense situation and save lives and all other costs of their military personal.

References:

-https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2020/03/13/iron-dome-could-intercept-those-rockets-in-iraq-but-it-doesnt-fit-armys-grand-plan/

-https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2020/03/14/iraqi-military-says-33-rockets-used-in-taji-base-attack

Araz Barwari is a law student at the University of Nawroz in Kurdistan of Iraq.

The opinions are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent the views of Ekurd.net or its editors.

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