World: Migration and Water in the Middle East and North Africa (February 2019)
In the Middle East and North Africa, migration is a key trend. The region hosts roughly 14 per cent of the global international migrant stock (refugees and other international migrants), including those originating from within the region and those arriving from outside the region.
The size of the migrant population has increased from under 15 million in 1990 to nearly 35 million by 2015. In addition, the region hosts the largest population of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), accounting for almost 41 per cent of all IDPs globally at the end of 2016 and totaling over 16 million.
In conjunction with such migration dynamics, the region is one of the most water scarce in the world, with 18 out of 22 Arab states falling below the renewable water resources annual threshold of 1,000mper capita and 13 states falling below the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500mper capita, per year. Moreover, the World Bank listed Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Morocco and Syria as countries that will experience a significant increase in water stress driven by climate change in the coming years.2 Another growing concern is that while over 56 per cent of the region’s population now lives in cities, water for agriculture remains a priority to ensure food security and to maintain rural livelihoods in middle and low-income countries.3 This is significant as the agricultural sector continues to consume nearly 80 per cent of the region’s fresh water resources, particularly groundwater.4 For example, in Iraq, where 85 per cent of the water withdrawal is used for agricultural activities, water shortages have a clear economic impact that is not only affecting the return of IDPs but also continues to increase unrest and create tensions between communities.5 For these reasons, during the World Economic Forum in 2015, experts raised the alarm that the ongoing water scarcity threat is “greater even than political instability or unemployment”.
Though lack of water security has long been identified as one of the drivers of migration - as it undermines the lives and livelihoods of people- it is difficult to draw a direct link with migration. This difficulty stems from the fact that water can rarely be separated from other social, political, economic and demographic drivers.7 However, like other environmental factors of migration, water scarcity can lead to both temporary and permanent displacements. Most people who are moving as a result of water scarcity try to reach a source of water closest to home and to search for other economic opportunities, with the majority of the migration fluxes tending to be within countries, rather than across borders.
