Iraq News Now

The desperate search for closure on the Brexit referendum of 2016 is driving most people potty. Almost every week has been declared to be a crunch time but maybe the next few hours and days will be that vital moment.

British Prime Minister Theresa May has failed three times to win her withdrawal agreement in parliament and has, at the last minute, offered to work with the Leader of the Opposition, Jeremy Corbyn to find a compromise that could allow an orderly exit from the European Union.

One possibility is that May's agreement is hitched to the United Kingdom joining a Customs Union in alignment with the Single Market, possibly with a final confirmatory referendum. May yesterday urged compromise with Labour on issues where they agreed and warned that "the choice that lies ahead of us is either leaving the European Union with a deal, or not leaving at all," given that parliament rules out leaving without a deal.

Whatever is decided will make many even more people unhappy. Simply describing the Brexit dilemma illustrates its vast complexity.  Here it goes. David Cameron proposed an in/out referendum in the 2015 election but many expected that it would be vetoed by a continued coalition between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. But Cameron won a majority, the Liberal Democrats left government, and he decided to proceed with a referendum to defeat Brexit. 

Few expected the result: 52 percent backed an underdeveloped concept of leaving with 48% opposed. People in two of the UK's constituent parts, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain. Leaving the European Union has opened fissures in the UK's union with independence for Scotland re-emerging and even Irish unity, although both are themselves difficult economically and politically. 

And then there are the differences in the main parties, the Conservatives and Labour. The rank and file of the Conservative Party and most of its MPs are pro-Brexit but led by a woman who was a reluctant remainer in the referendum. The rank and file of the Labour Party and most of its MPs were or are pro-Remain but are led by a man who has devoted his career to opposing the EU and favours a Brexit.

Conservatives feel they will be punished at the polls if they fail to achieve Brexit or the UK has to stand candidates in the EU elections while the Labour vote could be shredded between abstention, pro-EU parties such as the breakaway Independent Group, now renamed Change UK, or the Conservatives. 

Conservative MPs are also furious at May's reaching out to Corbyn and potentially boosting his credibility as a kingmaker. Given May's failure to secure support from her own side, it was the only possibility left. 

But the deal is not just being made domestically. The UK faces a disciplined team of negotiators from the European Commission for the EU 27 countries, plus the European Parliament, who needed to defend the integrity of the EU and also seek a deal that didn't poison relations with a large economy on their doorstep.

And all this is being done under tremendous time constraints. EU parliamentary elections take place in late May. The elections are staging posts for different domestic battles in each country with mainstream parties in France and Germany very nervous that disruptive populists can gain traction. Those elected will determine the shape and policies of the EU and its next seven year budget. 

If the UK delays its decision after this Friday it will have to take part in European elections. That could be an opportunity for British Brexit populists as well as pro-Remain forces to undermine the dominance of the two major parties. They each lost votes in a recent by-election to smaller parties.

Furthermore, Brexit means unravelling nearly 50 years of increasingly close regulation and trade with many companies in the UK employing many thousands of workers in manufacturing and agriculture reliant on just-in-time imports and exports. And it is likely that the finance and services sector could hemorrhage businesses to EU countries. Business craves certainty and can live with May's deal or the one she might do with Corbyn. Continuing uncertainty could be disastrous.

The way in which the UK stumbled blindly into Brexit has opened up a Pandora's Box of paradoxes, perils and opportunities. The perverse paradox is that the UK probably has the most pro-EU body of public opinion in the EU but one that should be far less pious and superior to the concerns of those who have been left behind and blame the EU for this. 

The peril is that many voters feel cheated although many remainers regularly quote the arch-Brexiteer minister David Davis, who once argued: "if a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy." 

The nub of the problem, however, is that the decision may not be implemented and then reversed. This is not a happy position even if a decent argument can be made that the decision, now that it is much clearer what it means, is not good for the country. Even if the May or a May/Corbyn deal is passed, there will be years of negotiations to shape a new trade and political relationship. 

Non-Brexit makes it more likely that the divisions on Europe will long rebound bitterly. It took a good 10 years for many of those who opposed staying in the then Common Market in the 1975 referendum to reconcile and stop arguing for leaving.

The opportunity is either to leave on a bipartisan basis and in an orderly fashion while consciously rebuilding links with the EU or to take our time, heal our wounds, and stay in the EU. Nearly every recent week in British politics has been hailed as decisive but it is possible that the coming hours will see decisions that determine our destiny for decades to come. It is unlikely to be a pretty sight.

Gary Kent is the Secretary of the All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG). He writes this column for Rudaw in a personal capacity. The address for the all-party group is appgkurdistan@gmail.com. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.