Iraq: IOM Iraq DTM Return Index: Findings Round Three (March 2019)
HIGHLIGHTS
The model used to calculate the return index has been revised to reflect both new and updated indicators developed in consultation with relevant partners and stakeholders. The model follows the same structure as the original design and is based on two scales: (i) livelihoods and basic services, and (ii) social cohesion and safety perceptions.
Of the assessed returnee population, 11 per cent (472,350 individuals) are living in high severity conditions across 279 locations. Ninewa and Salah al-Din governorates host the highest number of returnees living in these conditions with 213, 372 and 187,812 individuals, respectively. This proportion is relatively similar to the previous rounds published in September and January 2019, which had respectively 11% and 10% of returnees in this category.
The locations of return located in Al-Ba’aj District in Ninewa present the highest severity scores: there are very severe conditions in all of these locations, which host 10,722 returnees followed by Tooz District in Salah al-Din and Sinjar District in Ninewa, which are hosting 28,542 individuals (73%) in eight locations and 43,476 individuals (73%) in 40 locations, respectivel.
INTRODUCTION
This third round of the Return Index consists of a new baseline measurement of the severity of living conditions for the returnee population in Iraq. The data1 for this report was collected during the months of January and February 2019 in 8 governorates, 38 districts and 1,547 locations across Iraq. Since the previous round, collected in October 2018 (Round 2), the number of returnees has continued to increase and as of 28 February 2019, an additional 108,162 returnees were identified, making a total of 4,188,780 returnees (698,130 families).
This round the Return Index is built on a revised list of indicators developed in consultation with relevant partners and stakeholders to better reflect the changing displacement context. To measure the severity of conditions in each location of return, the Return Index is based on 16 indicators grouped into two scales: (i) livelihoods and basic services, and (ii) social cohesion and safety perceptions. A regression model is used to assess the impact of each of the indicators in facilitating or preventing returns and to calculate scores for the two scales. For example, the model tests how much less likely a location where no agricultural activities are back to normal has returns compared to a location where this is not the case. To compute an overall severity index, the scores of two scales are combined and grouped into three categories: ‘low’ severity conditions, ‘medium’, and ‘high’ (which also includes the identified ‘very high’ locations).
