US believes Syrian regime control over Kurdish lands preempts defeat of ISIS
"The regime probably will focus increasingly on reasserting control over Kurdish-held areas," stated Coats at a US Senate Intelligence Committee briefing on Tuesday.
The US estimates that its international coalition partnered with the predominately-Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces have "liberated" 99.5 percent of areas ISIS once controlled east of the Euphrates.
"The regime is unlikely to immediately focus on clearing ISIS from remote areas that do not threaten key military, economic, and transportation infrastructure, judging from previous regime counter-ISIS efforts," said Coats.
The extremists still have a presence west of the Euphrates and in southern Syria, as was evidenced last year when ISIS targeted the Druze community. It took the regime weeks to come to the minority group's aid.
Turkey, the only country overtly fighting the regime of Bashar al-Assad, has threatened what analysts describe as a third operation against the Peoples' Protection Units (YPG).
"Damascus probably will seek to exploit any security vacuum and Turkish pressure on the Kurds in order to strike a favorable deal with the Kurds while also seeking to limit Turkey’s presence and influence in Syria and reclaim territory in northwestern Syria held by Turkey," said Coats.
Whatever Assad is able to do militarily in Syria is heavy dependent upon support by Russia and Iran.
"The regime’s momentum, combined with continued support from Russia and Iran, almost certainly has given Syrian President Bashar al-Asad little incentive to make anything more than token concessions..." Coats gleaned.
Additionally, the intelligence boss does not see Turkey able to seriously threaten areas where Russia has propped up the regime and is willing to commit to a fight.
"Opposition groups, which rely on Turkey for continued support, probably are not capable of repelling a regime military operation to retake Idlib Province," he said of the northwestern governorate.
US President Donald Trump announced US forces will withdraw from Syria; although, he has not set a timeline and anti-ISIS operations have continued six weeks after his tweet.
Coats believes Ankara is more willing to challenge its NATO ally, the United States, in the Middle East.
"Turkey’s regional ambitions, a distrust of the United States, and the growing authoritarianism of Turkey’s leaders are complicating bilateral relations..." he stated
The report noted "existential threats" to Turkey like the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) that is headquartered in the Qandil Mountains of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq "including its People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia in Syria."
The yearly briefing comes as the United States sets policy for the coming year that will likely affect the speed of the reduction of forces in Syria.
The SDF's political arm, the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), has said it is open to negotiations with anyone including Damascus, but has certain demands, namely greater autonomy.
