Insurer says Iran's Guards likely to have organized tanker attacks
Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) are “highly likely”
to have facilitated attacks last Sunday on four tankers including two Saudi
ships off Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, according to a Norwegian
insurers’ report seen by Reuters.
The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Norway are investigating the
attacks, which also hit a UAE- and a Norwegian-flagged vessel.
A confidential assessment issued this week by the Norwegian
Shipowners’ Mutual War Risks Insurance Association (DNK) concluded that the
attack was likely to have been carried out by a surface vessel operating close
by that despatched underwater drones carrying 30-50 kg (65-110 lb) of
high-grade explosives to detonate on impact.
The attacks took place against a backdrop of US-Iranian
tension following Washington’s decision this month to try to cut Tehran’s oil
exports to zero and beef up its military presence in the Gulf in response to
what it called Iranian threats.
The DNK based its assessment that the IRGC was likely to
have orchestrated the attacks on a number of factors, including:
- A high likelihood that the IRGC had previously supplied
its allies, the Houthi militia fighting a Saudi-backed government in Yemen,
with explosive-laden surface drone boats capable of homing in on GPS
navigational positions for accuracy.
- The similarity of shrapnel found on the Norwegian tanker
to shrapnel from drone boats used off Yemen by Houthis, even though the craft
previously used by the Houthis were surface boats rather than the underwater
drones likely to have been deployed in Fujairah.
- The fact that Iran and particularly the IRGC had recently
threatened to use military force and that, against a militarily stronger foe,
they were highly likely to choose “asymmetric measures with plausible
deniability”. DNK noted that the Fujairah attack had caused “relatively limited
damage” and had been carried out at a time when US Navy ships were still en
route to the Gulf.
Both the Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker Amjad and the
UAE-flagged bunker vessel A.Michel sustained damage in the area of their engine
rooms, while the Saudi tanker Al Marzoqah was damaged in the aft section and
the Norwegian tanker Andrea Victory suffered extensive damage to the stern, DNK
said.
The DNK report said the attacks had been carried out between
six and 10 nautical miles off Fujairah, which lies close to the Strait of
Hormuz.
SENDING A MESSAGE
Iran has in the past threatened to block all exports through
the Strait of Hormuz, through which an estimated fifth of the world’s oil
passes.
According to DNK, it was highly likely that the attacks had
been intended to send a message to the United States and its allies that Iran
did not need to block the Strait to disrupt freedom of navigation in the
region.
DNK said Iran was also likely to continue similar low-scale
attacks on merchant vessels in the coming period.
Iranian officials and the Revolutionary Guards’ (IRGC)
spokesman were not available for comment.
Tehran had already rejected allegations of involvement and
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had said that “extremist
individuals” in the US government were pursuing dangerous policies. No one
claimed responsibility for the attacks.
DNK’s managing director Svein Ringbakken declined to
comment, except to say that “this is an internal and confidential report
produced to inform shipowner members of the DNK about the incidents in Fujairah
and the most likely explanation”.
The UAE has not blamed anyone for the attack.
Two US government sources said this week that US officials
believed Iran had encouraged Houthi militants or Iraq-based Shiite militias to
carry out the attack.
In a joint letter seen by Reuters and sent to the UN
Security Council on Wednesday, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Norway said the
attacks had been deliberate and could have resulted in casualties, spillages of
oil or harmful chemicals.
“The attacks damaged the hulls of at least three of the
vessels, threatened the safety and lives of those on board, and could have led
to an environmental disaster,” the letter said.
Last month, the United States designated the entire IRGC as
a terrorist organization. Washington had previously designated entities and
individuals connected with the IRGC, which controls vast segments of Iran’s
economy.
Tehran responded by designating the regional United States
Central Command (CENTCOM) as a terrorist organization.