Iraq News Now

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited Iran’s Supreme

Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran on June 13, hoping to ease tensions between Iran

and the US. When Abe offered to convey an Iranian reply to a message from

President Trump, Khamenei declined. Indeed, it appears that Khamenei’s reply at

that exact moment was already being sent in the form of twin attacks against

commercial tankers in the Gulf. A Norwegian-owned ship loaded with

petrochemicals erupted into flames. The other targeted ship was carrying Japanese

cargo (methanol) in transit to Singapore. Was this a calculated snub to Abe’s

peace-making efforts?

Although US and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) officials were

quick to identify Iran as the likely culprit, it is right to allow a full

investigation before definitively apportioning blame. However, experts agree

that four previous attacks against oil tankers last month had Iranian

fingerprints, and there is only one serious suspect in the frame.

Iran has repeatedly threatened to obstruct commercial shipping

in the Strait of Hormuz. Just days ago, in a fire-breathing speech, Hezbollah

leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened US forces with “annihilation” and proclaimed

that “the entire region will burn ... a barrel of oil will be $200 or $300.”

Nasrallah’s prediction was uncannily accurate, with oil

prices rocketing within minutes of the tanker attacks. Even Mohammed Javad

Zarif, Iran’s usually mild-mannered foreign minister, recently threatened that

the US “cannot expect to stay safe.”

How, then, can these cheap mobsters feign outrage about

fingers pointing at them when things start blowing up?

Tehran knows that its disintegrating economy cannot withstand

a possible six more years of Trump. The regime appears to have concluded that

offense is the best form of defense and is consequently moving toward a

war-footing. Qassem Soleimani, the Quds Force commander, last month instructed

proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen to prepare to target Western assets.

The Gulf of Oman attacks came the day after Iranian missiles

hit a crowded arrivals hall at Abha airport, in Saudi Arabia’s southwest,

causing dozens of casualties. The moderate climate of this attractive region

makes it a favored summer destination for Saudi and Gulf holidaymakers. The

airport was thus at its busiest. A Houthi spokesman claiming responsibility for

the Abha strikes threatened to target all Saudi airports. Indeed, missiles were

fired at Riyadh airport in 2017.

Such provocations are part of attempts to embroil Middle

Eastern states in the conflict using Iran’s proxy armies across the region. The

prospects for Iraqi stability would be bleak, indeed. There has been a recent

spike in unrest in Qatif, and it is only a matter of time before Tehran stirs

the pot again in Bahrain’s villages. How long before Israel joins the fray,

bringing down hell and destruction on Lebanon and southwestern Syria?

Deterrence only works when it is shown to be serious. The

US administration has played its hand badly, gaining a reputation for barking

very loudly, but failing to bite. Khamenei was likely reassured by Trump

plaintively declaring that he does not want conflict. Given that soaring oil

prices could torpedo a teetering world economy, and with the US leader staking

his 2020 reelection prospects on economic growth, the Gulf attacks seem

calculated by Khamenei to hit Trump where it hurts. Furthermore, the attacks

represent a blunt message to the world: “We can still hurt you.”

Maritime experts point out that it is impossible to fully

protect civilian shipping. Hundreds of oil tankers and commercial ships are

continually moving through the Hormuz chokepoint. The repeated nature of these

attacks means that oil prices may remain elevated. Shipping and insurance costs

could soar, with severe knock-on effects for the global economy, particularly

since the afflicted companies have signaled that they will suspend Gulf

operations and other corporations may follow. As was the case when Iran mined

Gulf waters during the 1980s, there are also dangerous environmental

consequences for fish stocks and complex ecosystems when huge tankers loaded

with petroleum products are torpedoed.

Enough of Iran’s good-cop-bad-cop games: Seducing the

Europeans with smiling, but impotent, Zarif and Rouhani, while Khamenei and

Soleimani implement a strategy infinitely more aggressive than anything

Khomeini ever dreamed up. Russia is urging negotiations to calm tensions, yet

it was Moscow that opened a Pandora’s box by aiding Tehran’s expansion in Syria

and elsewhere. What does Putin care that there were Russian nationals on the

targeted ships?

This terrorist regime and its proxy figureheads have

repeatedly and explicitly warned us that they intend to engulf the region in

flames and torch the global economy. Why do we always fail to take Iran at its

word? When tensions flared in May, European observers queued up to blame the

Trump administration and portray this as a failure of US policy. These latest

unprovoked attacks suggest that the escalation is fueled from one side only.

World leaders must not sit back and wait to see what action (if any) Trump will

take. This calls for a unified response by entities such as NATO, particularly

as member states including Norway are involved.

Global levels of oil demand in the short term tend to be

highly inelastic, meaning that relatively modest shocks in available supply can

have a drastic impact on prices. With one-fifth of the world’s oil flowing

through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran believes that it can hold the word’s economy

to ransom and send oil prices skyrocketing.

This crisis has gone way beyond previous bouts of macho

posturing and saber-rattling between Tehran and Washington.

World leaders generally lack the stomach for decisive action

in order to reestablish an effective containment strategy against Iran, but

they may quickly discover that they have little choice when the alternatives

are global economic meltdown or a prolonged and destructive regional war.