'The ‘Shiite crescent’ of Lebanon, Syria and Iraq is at risk of crumbling'
Patiently put in place by the Islamic Republic of Iran, the "Shiite crescent" made up of Lebanon, Syria and Iraq is going through a bad patch that could prove fatal. These countries, which have fallen under the control of the Iranian "mullah-archy," are facing a shortage of dollars, institutional chaos, economic disorder and civil war. As 2023 begins, the "axis of resistance" seems more threatened than ever by advanced decay that is due more to the drying up of the dollar than to its enemies' military assaults.
Two states, Iran and Syria, are subject to very severe American and international sanctions, which are both political and economic. Iraq has an abundance of oil money, but does not have it directly at its disposal, since its currency account is held by the New York Federal Reserve. And because of the sanctions against Iran, Washington is keeping a close eye on where the foreign exchange amounts available to the Baghdad government are going. This surveillance has been tightened enough recently to suffocate the Iranian regime, to the point that Baghdad has had to pay for its purchases from Tehran in dinars, which led to a drastic fall in the Iraqi dinar and the collapse of the Iranian rial. In the summer of 2015, US authorities froze the account of the Iraqi Central Bank at the Fed to prevent these resources from fueling Islamic State.
As for Lebanon, its ruling political class – mostly mafia – has been working as one in a systematic plundering of the country under the benevolent gaze of Hezbollah which, with the support of some parties, has been able to share its part of the booty with its protector and to finance its militia as well as the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad.
At the mercy of those on whom he depends
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These four countries are de facto bankrupt: Lebanon is institutionally paralyzed, financially insolvent since 2020, and has collapsed socially despite payments from the diaspora to families back home.
In civil war since 2011, Syria is fragmented and occupied by several foreign armies, including those of Turkey, Russia, the United States, Iran and even Israel for control of its airspace. The legal arsenal deployed to sanction the hostage-taking of the American embassy in Iran, Damascus and Tehran's active support for terrorism, or the Islamic Republic's development of a military nuclear program, was further strengthened by the Caesar Act, passed by the US Congress in December 2019 and effective in June 2020. Iran's domestic concerns – including mass street protests since September 2022 – and the stalemate of the Russian aggression in Ukraine have diverted the attention of Iran and Russia from their Syrian protégé, which has already been stripped of its strategic interests (infrastructure, deposits, electricity and telephone service). Moscow and Tehran are letting it wither to the point of seeing 50% of its bakeries close. The salary of an army lieutenant is now equivalent to only $15 a month. In December, civil servants were asked not to go to work for 10 days due to lack of fuel.
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