Iraq News Now

Tunisians

will go to the polls in October and November to elect 217 legislative assembly

members and a president to succeed Béji Caïd Essebsi, who is not seeking

re-election. Hopes are high that these elections will consolidate the progress

made in nearly eight years of democratization since the Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali

regime was toppled, and usher in a new phase of stability and maturity of

political institutions.
So far, three candidates have said they will run for

president—Akram Masmoudi, Nabil Karoui and Kaïs Saied, with the last two

polling favorably. Masmoudi is the founder and principal coordinator of the

Victory to Tunisia coalition, which aims for greater civic and political

engagement by young people. Karoui is a media businessman and owner of Nessma

TV, a private Tunisian channel with a footprint that spans North Africa, the

Middle East, Europe, Asia and the Americas. His platform is largely about

poverty eradication and seeking greater transparency in politics, which has

earned him the moniker “Robin Hood” and a measure of popularity. Some Tunisians

believe his success in business can translate to success in politics despite

allegations of tax evasion and the suspension of his TV channel by the state

media regulator in April for broadcasting without a license.
Saied is a controversial conservative constitutional scholar and

lawyer riding a wave of right-wing populism. He seeks constitutional reforms

such as increasing the number of legislative seats to 265, to re-instating the

death penalty (suspended in 1994) and rejecting equality in inheritance. He has

disavowed ties to the Islamist Ennahdha Party and insists on running as a

one-man show, which some Tunisians believe earns him a level of credibility

that has escaped individuals with ties to the major political parties.
Other potential candidates have not yet declared, but polling

firms are already factoring them in. Polls show Karoui and Saied in the lead,

followed by Prime Minister Youssef Chahed and conservative lawyer and

politician Abir Moussi, leader of the Destourian Movement formed from the

remnants of the pre-revolution ruling party, which remains nostalgic for the

Ben Ali era.
However,

the adoption of controversial amendments to electoral law has dampened the

political atmosphere. The assembly voted to erect barriers to “outsiders,”

targeting Karoui, Saied and those who were part of the pre-revolution Tunisian

government, such as Abir Moussi. Along with the shutdown of Karoui’s TV

channel, it is not far-fetched to conclude that establishment political forces

are wary of populist candidates and, disappointingly, resorted to undemocratic

measures.
Proponents of the amendments argue that independent candidates are

not bound by restrictions that established political parties must adhere to,

such as limits on political advertising, caps on donations, and bans on foreign

financing and the distribution of assistance, money or any in-kind gifts to

voters. However, the amendments retrospectively and candidates must demonstrate

compliance 12 months before elections, effectively eliminating three of the top

four non-establishment candidates.
If Tunisia is to remain a beacon of hope and a successful

demonstration that democracy can and does “work” in this region, the elections

will offer that defining moment. The past five years did little to inspire

confidence in Tunisia’s political leadership. Power struggles have been blamed

for the slow progress of reforms such as reducing the public-sector wage

burden, pensions, fiscal transparency and improving the ease of doing business,

in tandem with negotiations for a trade agreement with the EU, Tunisia’s

largest trading partner.
Beyond trade, the EU has contributed about $2.4 billion in

macro-economic support and thus maintains some influence in the country’s

internal dynamics — if only to curb illegal migration to Europe, discourage the

rise of Islamist militancy and protect the only “success” of the tumultuous

Arab Spring uprisings.
There are also concerns that escalating tension between Islamist

and secular factions in government could force a return to authoritarianism. In

last year’s municipal elections the Ennahdha Party took over the administration

of more than a third of Tunisia’s municipalities. Placing Ennahdha’s backers in

senior executive positions threatened a delicate balance of power between

Islamists and self-declared anti-Islamists, since it interfered with political

patronage networks that remain a backbone of Tunisia’s political fabric. In

retaliation, a coalition of senior government officials, professional

associations, trade unions and far-left activists embarked on a campaign to

classify the party as a threat and dissolve it because of its ties to the

loathed Muslim Brotherhood.
As these rifts widen and tensions escalate, presidential

candidates will have to present comprehensive platforms that define Tunisia

politically and economically for the coming decade. At the ground level, the

Tunisian dinar has lost 40 percent of its value against the euro since 2016 and

annual inflation is at 8 percent, leading to a 30 percent increase in living

costs. Households are either stuck with austere budgets or sink deeper into

debt. As of January this year, 15 percent of the country is unemployed. Even

more troubling is the high rate of youth unemployment, given that the 34.8

percent of Tunisians between the ages of 15 and 24 are not part of the labor

force. It is not surprising that candidates with messages aimed at eradicating

poverty or seeking greater government transparency, accountability, inclusivity

and responsibility are popular while incumbents are not faring nearly as well.