Iraq News Now

Since the ratification of Iraq’s constitution in 2005, the

government formation has been an excruciatingly protracted process. While the

constitution does not require a specific distribution of appointments by sect

or ethnicity, the multitude of political blocs and the ethno-sectarian interest

networks forced an allotment of cabinet positions among the diverse components

of the Iraqi population. While inclusive governance is an admirable goal, it

can be a formula for failure when merit is sacrificed for the sake of meeting

ethno-sectarian quotas. With only a few exceptions, Iraqi ministries have been

treated as fiefdoms to be controlled by the ministers or their parties and face

little accountability or transparency requirements. Even in the few cases when

ministers have resigned—or were removed from office for proven corruption or

mismanagement of public funds—they later returned to senior political positions

or left the country unscathed. For this reason, filling cabinet posts has

turned into ferocious horse-trading among influential Iraqi leaders. 
The

last government formation was no exception. To their credit, some political

blocs gave Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi liberty to choose professional technocrats

for their shares of ministry posts, which he ably did, but others insisted on

presenting their own nominees in continuation of the entrenched interest-based

tradition. Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi secured parliamentary confidence in his

cabinet in October 2018, but eight ministries remained unfilled because no

consensus was reached on the proposed names. Four ministers were subsequently

confirmed, while four others, including the powerful ministries of interior and

defense, lingered in the parliament for eight months. On June 24,

parliament voted to confirm the ministers of interior, defense, and

justice. The candidate for the Ministry of Education was rejected and a new

candidate needs to be nominated.
Now

that the government is almost fully formed, the prospects of good governance

still remain subject to many variables. As the summer heat scales up to

unbearable degrees, the most important indicator of popular satisfaction will

be the electricity supply. The current government inherited a depleted

electricity system and a ministry with a longstanding record of corruption and

incompetence. Several helpful measures were taken in the past few months to

address the ministry’s structure and raise capacity, including the

completion of a few previously unfinished projects that added to the power

supply as well as the signing of a new contract with Siemens to make

some cross-sector improvements in power generation, transport, and

distribution. The renewal of the US waiver to continue importing gas and

electricity from Iran until September also aided Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi’s

government. If the electricity supply improves noticeably this year, and a

satisfactory trajectory is established for the coming years, this will increase

the likelihood that Iraq’s government will be viewed as effective.
Gathering Storm Clouds: New Opposition Afoot
Despite

the positive developments on the electricity front, there is a gathering storm

in Iraqi politics that has vaguely begun taking shape following the Al-Hikmah

Movement’s announcement that it is an opposition party; the group is led

by Sayyid Ammar Al-Hakim, whose family is prominent in the clerical ranks and

the opposition to Saddam Hussein’s regime. In principle, this is a very welcome

development as successful parliamentary systems need an opposition to monitor

and act as a check on the party in power. But only time will tell if the

Al-Hikmah Movement will play this role or turn into another spoke in the wheel

of the Iraqi political process. Although Al-Hikmah does not have enough votes

to force a no-confidence vote in the parliament to overthrow the government, it

is working toward forming a larger parliamentary coalition to achieve this

trump card. Given that Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi was appointed as a compromise

independent candidate, his lack of strong party affiliation may open him up to

attacks from the strongest contender if the opposition storm gathers more

strength. In this scenario, it could be impossible to sustain a government with

a strong opposition in the absence of a ruling party.
The Need for Reconstruction and Unlocking Human Potential
In

the meantime, post-conflict reconstruction remains a major challenge in Iraq.

Almost two years since Iraq declared victory over the Islamic State of Iraq and

al-Sham (ISIS) and reclaimed all lost territories, many war-torn towns are

still waiting for serious reconstruction efforts and for their displaced

population to return to normal life. This is not due to the government’s lack

of will, but is rather due to a lack of resources. Iraq remains a rentier

state, with oil revenues making up almost the entire annual budget. At the

current level of oil exports, there is not enough money to run the state and

pay the reconstruction bills. Iraqi leaders must develop serious plans for

creating a diversified, vibrant economy with an effective private sector to

unlock human potential. If public sector hiring continues at the current high

levels, the state will collapse before it can absorb a fraction of the

unemployed Iraqi workforce. Many potential sectors where serious economic gains

can be made that so far remain abandoned can be revitalized by Iraq or with

help from the international community; agriculture, tourism, transportation,

trade, services, and the full utilization of human capital, to name a few.
Now

that Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi’s government is complete—except for the

Ministry of Education, which is now ably run by the Minister of Higher

Education—it is time to move ahead with improved governance, anti-corruption

measures, and a serious focus on the economy. One prudent departure from the

previous administrations would be to change the philosophy of governance from

unachievable elaborate plans and adopt a new style of governance that

establishes a proven record of sustained small, but significant,

accomplishments to restore public confidence in the government. A well-designed

infrastructure program that is compatible with the capacity and resources of

the government with a reasonably quick timeline and with clearly defined,

achievable goals is the only realistic path for Iraq in the foreseeable future.

If elaborate, long term projects must be pursued, they should be broken into

stages to ensure efficiency and transparency.