Future governance of Saudi Arabia: Challenges for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
Shafaq news / A British report sheds light on the future governance of Saudi Arabia, highlighting the potential challenges Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman might face upon succeeding his father, King Salman. One key challenge is the critical decision of choosing a new Crown Prince.
The report by "Middle East Eye" noted that as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman nears ascension to the throne amid his father’s declining health, his succession appears inevitable. However, he faces the difficult tasks of appointing a Crown Prince and a Deputy Crown Prince.
According to the report, the king, when selecting the future Crown Prince, theoretically needs to adhere to the Basic Law of Governance from 1992, which stipulates that rulers should be descendants of King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, chosen from among the "most upright" of his male offspring.
In 2017, King Salman amended this law to stipulate that after the sons of Ibn Saud, no king and Crown Prince should belong to the same branch of the royal family. The report suggested that Mohammed bin Salman could, in practice, leverage his powers to ignore this amendment and appoint one of his brothers as Crown Prince. However, such a move might provoke significant backlash by excluding other branches of the Al Saud family.
The report indicated that this action could exacerbate discontent among major family branches like those of Fahd and Sultan, who have not faced the same level of marginalization as the branches of Naif and Abdullah.
Despite rumors about whom Mohammed bin Salman might choose as Crown Prince, the decision remains undisclosed. The report speculated that it is uncertain whether the future king will follow the precedent set by King Abdullah, who created the Deputy Crown Prince position in 2014 to prevent a power vacuum.
The report explained that the Deputy Crown Prince position has been vacant since 2017 when Mohammed bin Salman was promoted to Crown Prince. King Salman did not appoint a Deputy Crown Prince, partly due to Mohammed bin Salman’s young age at the time, making his death unlikely in the near term, thus obviating the immediate need for a deputy.
More importantly, finding a suitable Deputy Crown Prince would be challenging, given the antagonism King Salman and Mohammed bin Salman have generated among several royal family branches, particularly the Naif and Abdullah branches. Former Crown Prince Mohammed bin Naif, after being sidelined, was placed under house arrest and disappeared from public life. Similarly, Prince Mutaib, son of the late King Abdullah and former head of the Saudi National Guard, was dismissed and also vanished from public view following corruption allegations.
The report asserted that King Salman and Mohammed bin Salman have not been well-regarded by these branches, nor their descendants. Although the king could have chosen a deputy from other significant branches, he opted not to, potentially to allow Mohammed bin Salman to establish his authority without the influence of senior princes, many of whom previously held high government positions.
Over the past seven years, Mohammed bin Salman has consolidated power, effectively becoming synonymous with the state, controlling various aspects of government and life in Saudi Arabia. This concentration of power has resulted in him becoming a de facto absolute ruler, listening primarily to close friends, foreign advisors, and confidants.
The report found that Mohammed bin Salman's policies, both domestic and foreign, reflect his personal ambitions rather than the result of consultations with a broader group of experienced princes. Appointing a Deputy Crown Prince could thus be seen as a potential nuisance to his authority.
Most qualified candidates for the roles of Crown Prince and Deputy Crown Prince remain haunted by the memory of the "Ritz-Carlton incident" in Riyadh, where Mohammed bin Salman detained numerous high-profile officials in his 2017 anti-corruption campaign. Many were released only after paying substantial amounts of money to the state.
In conclusion, the report suggested that as king, Mohammed bin Salman will face the challenge of appointing a Crown Prince and Deputy Crown Prince who are both capable yet not threatening to his authority. To maintain his control, he is likely to choose princes who are less powerful and more compliant.
