Experts warn of "catastrophic" fallout if Iraq takes part in war against Israel
Shafaq News/ Security and political experts have warned that any Iraqimilitary response to Israel's recent strikes on Lebanon could trigger"catastrophic" repercussions, suggesting that Tel Aviv may retaliatewith direct attacks on critical Iraqi infrastructure, including ports, oilrefineries, and electricity grids.
On Tuesday, Israel launched missile strikes and air raids on southernLebanon, leaving 558 dead and 1,835 injured, according to the latest figuresfrom Lebanon’s Ministry of Health.
Risks Of Targeting Iraq
Security expert Saif Raad noted that Israeli Prime Minister BenjaminNetanyahu is attempting to drag the Axis of Resistance and the region intofurther escalation through the war in Lebanon, which has serious andwide-ranging implications for the region and Iraq.
Raad told Shafaq News Agency, "From a military perspective, theconcept of 'unified fronts' is unlikely to result in effective action againstthe Zionist entity due to the vast distance. Any such move could embarrass thegovernment and lead to sanctions against the country."
He added, "Iraq could be directly targeted by the Zionist entity,with strikes on sites such as the Basra port, oil refineries, or electricitysystems. This would pose a significant challenge for both the government andarmed factions."
Raad emphasized the importance of "carefully studying the situationfrom all angles and providing humanitarian and medical assistance to theLebanese people, as urged by religious authority Ayatollah Mohammad Alial-Sistani. Additionally, reducing diplomatic missions, as called for byMuqtada al-Sadr, would have an immediate impact."
Iraqi Resistance Response
Salam al-Jazaeri, a political bureau member of the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haqmovement, said that Israel's open war on southern Lebanon compels "allhonorable people" to intervene and support the Lebanese people andresistance.
Speaking to Shafaq News Agency, al-Jazaeri noted that the statement byIraq's top Shi'ite cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, was clear in defendingLebanon’s unity. “His call for a major relief campaign shows his understandingthat the enemy will act brutally, killing and displacingindiscriminately," al-Jazaeri said.
"The Iraqi resistance uses tactical responses, including drones,missiles, and advanced projectiles, to strike back against the Zionistoccupation," he said.
Al-Jazaeri stressed that resistance forces across Iraq, Lebanon, andYemen possess advanced weaponry. “The more the enemy escalates, the moresophisticated the weapons the resistance will use," he said, adding that"the war will extend to air, land, and sea, as [Hezbollah’sSecretary-General Sayyed Hassan] Nasrallah has declared."
He also highlighted public willingness in Iraq to join the fight inLebanon, though warned that Israel's powerful missile capabilities couldcomplicate the conflict. "If Israel continues its indiscriminate killings,the response will come from all sides, using advanced weaponry," he said.
Threat To Regional Stability
Hassan Momani, a professor of international relations and conflictresolution at the University of Jordan, warned that if the escalation inLebanon spirals out of control, especially if it opens a front similar to Gaza,it will have significant political, economic, and social repercussions for theregion, including mass displacement.
“This comes at a time when the region has been suffering from unrest andconflicts since 2011,” Momani told Shafaq News Agency. “The region does notneed additional escalation that would complicate the situation further.”
Meanwhile, Lebanese security expert and political analyst Hassanal-Alyan said, "Netanyahu is attempting to separate the fronts between theresistance in Lebanon and Gaza, and is trying to pressure the Lebanesegovernment to force Hezbollah to halt its support. However, this has not andwill not succeed."
Al-Alyan emphasized that "the Lebanese state has stood by theresistance, and the support for the resistance has only grown stronger despitethe massacres committed by the Israeli enemy, which has violated allinternational resolutions with the backing and approval of the United Statesand complicit Arab governments. Without this support, Israel would not havedared to extend its aggression to Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran."
Iranian international law advisor Hadi Issa Daloul argued that"every war Israel enters shortens its lifespan, as its weapons drive ittoward a path of destruction, especially since it fights these battlesalone."
He told Shafaq News Agency that "the US provides Israel withfinancial and military aid but does not engage directly on the ground. As forthe European Union, it is in a state of disarray due to the war in Ukraine.This makes a direct war difficult for Israel, which is why it resorts tolong-range missile strikes."
Limited war? World War?
Security and strategic expert Alaa Al-Nashua has warned that Iraq couldface disastrous consequences if it becomes directly involved in the conflictbetween Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Al-Nashua described the ongoinghostilities as a "limited war" between Israel and a militant faction,with broader implications involving Iran, which provides significant military,economic, and political support to Hezbollah.
Speaking to Shafaq News Agency, Al-Nashua said, "This is anindirect confrontation between two major forces in the region: Israel and Iran.Iran backs Hezbollah and has proxies in countries that share direct or indirectborders with Israel, including Syria and Lebanon, while Iraq and Yemen areconnected through solidarity."
On Iraq's potential involvement, he noted that "if Iranian-backedIraqi armed factions move to support Hezbollah, Iraq could naturally become aparty in the conflict. However, so far, these factions have mainly offeredfinancial and moral support, with little military involvement. The chances ofIraq entering the war as a combatant against Israel are slim."
Al-Nashua stressed that any direct action by Iraqi factions againstIsrael would create a serious dilemma for the Iraqi government, placing it atodds with the US and the Western coalition, which controls Iraq's security andmilitary assets. "A formal Iraqi military action against Israel would becatastrophic for both the government and the factions, as they are no match forIsrael's airpower," he warned.
He downplayed the likelihood of a wider global conflict, stating,"There are no indications of a third world war. The major powers supportIsrael in its military campaigns, whether against Palestinians or Lebanese, whohave become victims of Iran's unfulfilled promises of support."
