Iraq News Now

Shafaq News/ The fall of Bashar al-Assad’sgovernment marks a turning point in Syria’s long and brutal conflict. Afterover a decade of civil war, the country now faces an uncertain future asopposition groups, Kurdish factions, government remnants, and international powersmaneuver to fill the vacuum of authority. This moment of upheaval is reshapingthe political and military landscape, raising questions about Syria’s unity,regional stability, and the strategies of global actors vying for influence inone of the Middle East's most fractured terrains.

HTS Gains Momentum

Before launching their offensive on November 27,HTS controlled roughly half of Idlib province in northwest Syria, along withlimited territory in Aleppo, Hama, and Latakia provinces—an area of approximately3,000 square kilometers.

The faction, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusrabefore severing ties with al-Qaeda, operates alongside smaller oppositiongroups and jihadist factions, including the Turkistan Islamic Party under theleadership of Abu Mohammad Al-Julani.

The region under HTS control is home to aboutfive million people, most of them internally displaced, according to UNestimates.

HTS's latest campaign, the most significant inyears, has more than doubled its territorial control, extending to Aleppo city,parts of Hama, and Idlib countryside with almost no confrontation with theSyrian army.

While no external power has openly backed HTS,the group’s recent offensive showcased advanced weaponry and a notable presenceof foreign fighters, raising questions about potential covert support.

Government Forces and Allies

Once dominant, Syrian government forces havesuffered remarkable losses since the conflict's onset. Early defeats saw vastterritories slip away to opposition, Kurdish groups, and ISIS. However,Russia’s military intervention in September 2015 reversed the tide, enablinggovernment forces to recapture substantial areas.

Before HTS's latest offensive, Syrian governmentforces controlled roughly two-thirds of the country, home to 12 million people.Their strongholds included Sweida, Daraa, and Quneitra in the south; Homs andHama in the center; Tartus, Latakia, Damascus, and parts of Aleppo in the west;and portions of Raqqa and Deir Ez-Zor.

Syrian forces also maintain control of key oiland gas fields, including the Shaer gas field, Syria’s largest, and oil fieldslike Jazal in Homs and al-Taim and al-Ward oil fields in Deir Ez-Zor.

The government’s military apparatus relies onRussia, Iran, local forces, Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah, and foreignfighters from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq.

Russia remains a critical ally, with militaryfacilities in Tartus and Hmeimim, and an estimated 114 military sites acrossthe country, according to Jusoor Studies. Meanwhile, Iran operates 529 sites,making it the largest foreign military presence in Syria.

In the latest escalation of Syria’s conflict,the Russian air force launched a series of strikes targeting opposition forces,resulting in hundreds of casualties, according to local sources.

Despite the intensity of the initial assault,Russia refrained from pursuing further action following Bashar al-Assad’sretreat from power. Analysts suggest that Moscow’s decision to limit itsinvolvement reflects a strategic recalibration as it navigates the evolvingdynamics of post-Assad Syria.

The Role of Kurdish Forces

After the Syrian army’s 2012 withdrawal fromKurdish-majority areas, Kurdish forces established an autonomous administrationin the north and east. Their military wing, the US-backed Syrian DemocraticForces (SDF), led the fight against ISIS and currently controls nearly aquarter of Syria.

The SDF governs regions with about three millioninhabitants, about a third of whom are Kurds. Their control includes key oilfields like Al-Omar in Deir Ez-Zor and Koniko gas field, as well as territoriesin Raqqa and Hasakah.

The US-led coalition operates several militarybases in SDF-controlled areas, including the strategic Al-Tanf base nearSyria’s southern borders with Jordan and Iraq.

The coalition has expanded its footprint,increasing from 30 to 32 sites between 2023 and 2024, Jusoor Studies reports.

In the current escalation, Syrian oppositionforces launched an attack on Kurdish-led fighters in the northern city ofManbij.

A statement attributed to the “Operation Room ofthe Dawn of Freedom” affiliated with a group identifying itself as the"Ministry of Defense of the Syrian Interim Government" was posted onX, declaring that the Syrian National Army (SNA) intended to "liberate thecity of Manbij from the separatist PKK terrorist group."

By December 9, SNA, the Turkish-backedopposition group, gained full control of Manbij.

On December 10, the opposition armed factionsreportedly affiliated with the military operations command took over theprovincial headquarters in Deir ez-Zor, eastern Syria, following the SDF,according to Syrian media outlets.

Despite the US support of Kurds, President-electDonald Trump and the Biden administration have signaled that the United Stateswill refrain from military intervention in Syria.

“THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT,” Trump declared onsocial media from Paris, where he attended the reopening of Notre DameCathedral.

Turkiye and Allied Factions

Since 2016, Turkiye and its allied Syrianfactions have launched multiple military operations, seizing a buffer zonealong the border. Their territory stretches from Jarablus in northeast Aleppoto Afrin in the northwest and a separate 120-kilometer area between Ras al-Aynand Tel Abyad.

According to Jusoor, Turkiye maintains 126military sites in Syria, including bases and observation points, with mostconcentrated in Aleppo and Idlib provinces.

Its allied factions, grouped under the so-calledSyrian National Army, include former opposition fighters, such as the SultanMurad Division, and groups like Jaysh al-Islam, which previously dominatedrebel-held suburbs near Damascus.

Turkiye's primary interests in Syria includepreventing the establishment of a Kurdish entity along its southern border andensuring the return of Syrian refugees. The fall of al-Assad has created bothopportunities and challenges for Turkiye in achieving these goals

ISIS Resurgence

Despite losing its territorial caliphate in2019, ISIS continues a low-level insurgency, launching attacks from deserthideouts in Deir Ez-Zor and Homs.

ISIS fighters also target government and Kurdishforces, maintaining their presence while largely avoiding counterattacks.

In the latest development, ISIS seems to have nodirect involvement.

Syria’s Military Landscape in Flux

The recent HTS-led campaign, coupled withgovernment setbacks, has redrawn Syria's map of control. Opposition forces nowhold approximately 40,000 square kilometers—22% of Syria’s total area—whilegovernment-held territory shrinks.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government and thearmed Syrian opposition's takeover of Damascus early on Sunday has raisedconcerns among analysts about the country's next phase, as divisions amongopposition factions threaten to complicate the path to a new government.

Observers emphasize that Syria's politicaltransition depends on both the internal dynamics of opposition factions and theinfluence of global powers in shaping the post-Assad era. For now, the road toreconciliation and governance in Syria remains fraught with uncertainty.

"The groups controlling Syria have ahistory of deep divisions and even violent conflict," Farid Saadoun, aSyrian political analyst, told Shafaq News. "These disagreements couldresurface during the negotiations for forming a government and drafting a newconstitution. Reaching a consensus may take months, and an agreement mightremain elusive due to the challenges of aligning their interests."

Complicating matters, some factions, like HTS,are internationally designated as terrorist organizations, while others facedisputes with neighboring states.

“Each group also carries the influence of itsregional or international backers, including Turkiye, the United States, andRussia, whose strategic interests will likely shape any forthcoming politicalagreements.”

Fears of ISIS Resurgence

The sweeping changes in Syria have reignitedconcerns about the potential re-emergence of ISIS, though its activities duringthe recent upheaval have been conspicuously absent.

Iraqi security expert Mukhlid al-Darb toldShafaq News that ISIS's silence amid the chaos suggests strategic containment."What happened in Syria aligns with a premeditated plan developed over theyears. The ongoing conflict is confined to Syrian borders, and we’ve seen noISIS activity during these events, contrary to expectations. This indicates thegroup is under control, and Syria’s trajectory is being steered by agendas thatdo not intersect with ISIS’s."

Despite this, the notorious al-Hol camp innortheastern Syria remains a source of concern for the international community.

Situated south of Hasakah, the camp is home totens of thousands of individuals, including families of ISIS fighters andsupporters. Administered by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),al-Hol has drawn scrutiny due to the potential for radicalization and its roleas a symbol of the enduring ISIS threat.

However, al-Darb downplayed the immediate risksfrom the camp to Iraq, noting that ISIS has shifted its focus elsewhere."The al-Hol camp operates outside active agendas on the ground. Thegroup’s center of gravity has shifted to North Africa, the Caucasus,Afghanistan, and Pakistan—regions now serving as fertile ground for itsoperations."

Analyst Farid Saadoun highlighted thegeopolitical implications of al-Hol, suggesting that the camp poses limitedrisk under current circumstances. "The camp is under SDF protection, sothere is no immediate threat. However, if regional or international plans wereto open its gates, the consequences could pose a global securitychallenge," Saadoun warned.

As regional and global stakeholders navigateSyria's volatile post-Assad landscape, the lingering specter of ISIS remains acritical factor shaping security considerations.

Shifting Regional Dynamics in Syria’s Post-AssadEra

The aftermath of Bashar al-Assad's fall hasintensified discussions about the roles of key regional and internationalpowers in shaping Syria's future. Analysts suggest that the geopoliticalchanges in Syria are part of a broader recalibration in the Middle East, withsignificant implications for countries with vested interests.

Al-Darb believed Syria’s recent developments fitinto the blueprint of a "new Middle East," which he said began withconflicts in Gaza and southern Lebanon before culminating in Syria.

"Each participating actor in this projecthas achieved strategic gains," al-Darb told Shafaq News, noting that thenew Syrian order could marginalize Iran and its regional allies, particularlyHezbollah. "One of the main objectives was severing the supply linecritical to Hezbollah’s operations in Lebanon," he added.

In turn, Jordanian political analyst Hazem Ayadhighlighted the relative control demonstrated by the opposition forces as theyadvanced into major cities such as Damascus, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, and Daraa. Heattributed this to Turkish guarantees regarding the behavior of oppositionfactions and their interaction with Syria’s diverse communities.

"While the SDF has retreated from parts ofDeir Ez-Zor and villages previously under government control, they stillmaintain a hold over sensitive regions, including al-Hol camp, under the USsecurity and political umbrella," Ayad explained.

Ayad expressed optimism that chaos could beavoided in the immediate term due to the presence of guarantors such as Turkiyeand the United States. These actors are likely to oversee negotiations leadingto a transitional government that represents Syria’s various factions."The real test will come when a government is formed, as it will determinewhether the situation stabilizes or spirals into further disorder," hesaid.

Turkish political analyst Firas Ridwanogluechoed concerns about the uncertain trajectory of post-Assad Syria but stressedTurkiye’s relatively favorable position. "Unlike Iran or Lebanon, Turkiyeappears less anxious. This is partly due to prior arrangements and theopposition’s alignment with Turkish policies," Ridwanoglu told ShafaqNews.

He noted that the opposition's actions so farhave been aimed at dismantling al-Assad’s political system while preservingessential state services. "This suggests continuity in governance, albeitwithout al-Assad’s regime. The fate of the Baath Party, however, remainsuncertain," he remarked.

Strategically, Ridwanoglu saw Syria transitioningfrom one regional axis to another. "This represents a significant loss forIran and the ‘Axis of Resistance,’ as Syria shifts closer to Turkiye and awayfrom Tehran’s influence. Iran will likely fight to retain its leverage,particularly in Lebanon," he explained.

For Turkiye, the developments offer potentialdomestic and regional benefits. "The rise of a Syrian government morealigned with Ankara’s interests is a strategic win for Turkiye. It also pavesthe way for the return of Syrian refugees, which could bolster President RecepTayyib Erdogan’s popularity at home," Ridwanoglu said.

Amid the shifting dynamics in Syria, one keyplayer has taken bold actions without facing significant internationalcondemnation: Israel.

The collapse of al-Assad’s government, longviewed by Israel as a formidable obstacle to its strategic objectives, hasseemingly presented new opportunities for Israeli operations in the region.During an announcement of an agreement with Lebanon last November, IsraeliPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a stark warning to al-Assad, saying,“Do not play with fire.”

Since the fall of al-Assad, Israel has escalatedits military activities across Syria, targeting critical militaryinfrastructure, including airports and facilities in Damascus. These strikes,according to Israeli officials, are aimed at preventing Iran from smugglingweapons through Syria to its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Israeli Forces have also seized control of ademilitarized buffer zone in southern Syria, established under a 1974 ceasefireagreement. Israeli officials describe the move as a temporary measure to securethe northern border amid ongoing instability in Syria.

The army said it had carried out about 480strikes across Syria over the past two days, primarily focusing on strategicmilitary targets linked to the Syrian army facilities and equipment.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hadhailed the fall of al-Assad’s regime as “a new and dramatic chapter.”

As international and regional actors navigateSyria's shifting landscape, questions remain about the long-term implicationsof these dynamics, particularly for nations heavily invested in Syria’s future.The evolving roles of the United States, Turkiye, and Russia will likely shapethe country's path toward a stable—or fractured—new order.