World: Crisis In Sight: Quarterly Risk Analysis (June 2019)
ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis outlines a number of key contexts where a notable deterioration may occur within the next six months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs.
ACAPS analysts conduct daily monitoring and independent analysis of more than 150 countries to support evidence-based decision-making in the humanitarian sector.
Risk analysis depends on a solid understanding of the context and on investigating the interaction of the variables that cause or resist change. Risk analysis is a process that should be repeated at regular intervals and the change in risk recorded over time. Regular reviews of risks that analyse why previously identified risks did or did not materialise will help strengthen the analyst’s ability to create chains of events that point towards the emergence of a hazard and assess probability.
