Iraqi economist warns: Oil prices could surpass $200 if war reaches Gulf countries
Shafaq News/ Oil prices could soarbeyond $200 per barrel if the war extends to Gulf countries and Iran shuts downthe Strait of Hormuz, halting the daily flow of approximately 20 millionbarrels to global markets, Iraqi economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi predicted on Friday.
Al-Marsoumi outlined two possiblescenarios for the looming "oil war." The first envisions Israeltargeting Iran's key oil export hubs, particularly Kharg Island, through which90% of Iranian oil exports pass. This attack would take 1.5 million barrels ofIranian oil off the market, raising prices by roughly $5 per barrel to around$82. However, he noted that "this would also cut off the most important sourceof Iranian funding."
“In such a case, OPEC+ may interveneby removing voluntary and mandatory production limits, ensuring sufficient oilsupplies to compensate for the loss of Iranian oil. This intervention couldbring prices back down to around $70 per barrel,” he affirmed.
As for the second scenario,Al-Marsoumi suggested that “the war could extend to include oil pumping andexport stations in the Gulf, which would negatively impact Gulf oil exports,particularly from Saudi Arabia, pushing prices above $100 per barrel.”
The economic expert also pointed out,“Iran has previously stated that if it is prevented from exporting its oil, itwould block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz,” explaining, “If Irancloses the Strait, it would halt approximately 20 million barrels of global oilsupplies daily, driving prices to $200 per barrel and negatively affectinggas shipments passing through the Strait.”
Al-Marsoumi further clarified, “AnIsraeli strike would likely target oil installations, especially Iranianrefineries, which would take 300,000 to 400,000 barrels of Iranian exports offthe market.” Nevertheless, he noted that this would have “minimal impact onglobal oil prices, particularly with Libyan oil returning to previous levels.”
