Iraq's "roadmap" for navigating regional conflicts: Balancing diplomacy and internal security
Shafaq News/ Iraqi political observers have proposed acomprehensive "roadmap" aimed at helping Iraq avoid the repercussionsof the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and southern Lebanon, emphasizing the need fordiplomatic engagement and seeking to leverage Iraq's political influence toprovide viable solutions for regional crises.
Diplomatic Strategy and Domestic Control
The proposed strategy coincides with domestic initiatives,particularly the need to ensure that weapons are confined to state control.This dual approach aims to fortify Iraq's position in the region and mitigatepotential risks arising from external conflicts.
These proposals come in response to warnings from IraqiPrime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, who recently communicated to USPresident Joe Biden and European Union leaders that the region is "on thebrink of a dangerous slide that could drag it and the world into continuouswars."
Insights from Experts
Dr. Ihsan Al-Shammari, a professor of public policy at theUniversity of Baghdad, pointed out that "Iraq can avoid being drawn intothe conflicts in the Middle East by adhering to the principle of balance thatprevious Iraqi governments have followed. However, this balance has beendisrupted under Prime Minister Al-Sudani’s government, which is associated withthe so-called armed factions (Resistance factions). These groups declared fromthe start that this government would be a resistance government."
In an interview with Shafaq News Agency, Al-Shammarisuggested that one of the key steps Al-Sudani must take is to officiallyrenounce this label and return to the principle of balance in Iraq's foreignrelations, calling for "the adoption of a highly neutral foreign policystance, avoiding provocation of both Arab and international parties."Additionally, Al-Shammari stressed the importance of Iraq not being seen asmerely a bridge or a messenger for others but as a nation capable of taking thelead on key regional issues. He argued that "Iraq currently lacks suchinitiative."
Al-Shammari underscored the need for the Iraqi government toengage diplomatically with Iran, Arab countries, the United States, and theEuropean Union. "Instead of waiting for diplomats to come to them, Iraqileaders must proactively visit these nations to convey that Iraq offerssolutions to the ongoing crises, leveraging its influence and alliances toavoid the fallout from the wars in Gaza and southern Lebanon."
On the domestic front, Al-Shammari argued, "Despite thegovernment nearing the end of its term, it must immediately begin the processof disarming armed factions. Ensuring that weapons are solely in the hands ofthe state should not just be a slogan, but a concrete policy to protect Iraqfrom further conflict."
Although the government claims it is not directly involvedin the war, Iraq remains a target due to the presence of US military bases andother strategic interests. Therefore, Al-Shammari stressed the need for thegovernment “to take security measures, especially after failed attempts tonegotiate with these factions.”
In conclusion, Al-Shammari warned that Iraq has becomeentangled in both the political and military dimensions of the regionalconflict. "The recent attacks and Israeli casualties have placed Iraqwithin Israel's scope of potential targets. Even if action is delayed, Iraqremains at risk due to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’sclassification of Iraq as part of the ‘Axis of Evil.’ This designation not onlyimplicates the armed factions or the government but the entire Iraqi politicalsystem, leaving Iraq facing significant challenges due to the failure of itscurrent political approach."
The Risks of Armed Factions
Security expert Mukhallad Al-Darb echoed the sentiments ofAl-Shammari, noting that Iraq has become a potential target for Israelfollowing the recent attack by resistance factions on Israeli forces in theGolan Heights, which resulted in the death of two soldiers and the injury of 24others. This attack, which was officially claimed by these factions, haseffectively placed Iraq within Israel's list of potential targets.
Al-Darb emphasized to Shafaq News Agency that attacksoriginating from Iraqi territory targeting locations outside its borders couldhave serious consequences. "These could manifest soon, possibly throughstrikes on strategic sites within Iraq or the targeting of key figures withinthe resistance factions."
Al-Darb highlighted a central dilemma in Iraq; thedifference between the decisions of the state and those of the armed factions.The Iraqi state is attempting to distance itself from regional conflicts andshield the country from becoming a target. On the other hand, the actions ofthe resistance factions directly contradict the government's efforts. “Theiroperations provoke Israel, undermining official Iraqi policies and making itmore likely that Israel will continue targeting these factions, which are engagedin direct confrontation with the "Axis of Resistance."”
Al-Darb also drew a parallel with the situation in Lebanon,explaining that "Israel's strikes are aimed at the resistance factions,particularly Hezbollah, rather than the Lebanese state. Israel views Lebanon asa sovereign nation and avoids targeting its governmental institutions orcritical infrastructure. Instead, its focus remains on Hezbollah and itsaffiliates." This same pattern, he argued, "is likely to be followedin Iraq, where Israeli actions will target the resistance factions withoutdirectly attacking the Iraqi state."
Navigating Complex Geopolitical Terrain
Military and security expert, Lieutenant General Dr. JamalAl-Halbousi, believed that Al-Sudani's recent statements place Iraq in adifficult balancing act, with both variable and fixed boundaries. "Thispolitical balancing act is one of the most complex the country has faced interms of its regional, Arab, and international positioning," he explained.
Al-Halbousi elaborated to Shafaq News Agency that "Iraqis known for its policy of non-alignment or non-involvement. Its geographiclocation necessitates that it acts as a meeting point for various policies.Despite the Iraqi government's reassurances to American and Western embassiesthat it opposes any military escalation or expansion of the ongoing conflict,the reality on the ground presents a different challenge due to the involvementof certain factions, which puts the government in a difficult position."
He added that "Israel's capability to target itsadversaries creates a significant concern for Iraq. This is why Al-Sudani isworking hard to navigate a middle-ground solution, steering the country towardssafety through a balanced, moderate approach. He aims to control all forces,including the armed factions."
Al-Halbousi pointed out that Iraq’s geographical andpolitical situation requires delicate maneuvering to avoid becoming entangledin broader conflicts. Al-Sudani's challenge is to maintain neutrality whilemanaging internal and external pressures, especially from factions that may actoutside the state's direct control.
Al-Sudani’s Call for Action
Iraqi Prime Minister stated in a message to US President JoeBiden and European Union nations that the region is on the brink of a dangerousabyss that could drag it and the world into ongoing wars.
In a statement, Al-Sudani said, "As we mark one yearsince the events on October 7, 2023, and with the continuation of the Zionistaggression against Gaza, that extended to brotherly country of Lebanon,threatening the entire region, Iraq reiterates its early position, in which itwarned of the grave consequences of the occupying entity's efforts to widen thewar and conflict, and the results of allowing occupying entity to persist incommitting crimes amid the international community's failure to fulfill itsrole."
He continued, "Today, in light of the dangerousdevelopments in the region, we send a message to all our friends, particularlyU.S. President Joe Biden and the European Union: we are on the brink of aperilous situation that could plunge the region and the world into prolongedconflicts, disrupt the global economy, and severely hinder development. Ourregion remains the energy lifeline of the world. We should acknowledge thesignificant stance of French President Emmanuel Macron, who called for haltingarms deliveries to the occupying entity and urged efforts to end the war. Hisposition reflects a genuine understanding of the region's serioussituation."
Al-Sudani remarked, "Our government has worked hard toshield Iraq from the effects of this escalation, and we have succeeded in doingso with your cooperation and the collaboration of all our friends worldwide.This critical phase demands that we intensify our efforts and focus on stoppingthe targeting of civilians, sparing the region from the horrors of a war thatwould affect everyone. In such a conflict, there would be no winners onlydestruction and devastation. We reaffirm that Iraq will continue its effortsand endeavors, alongside friendly and brotherly nations, to work together forde-escalation and to prevent the widening of the conflict, which affects thesecurity of both the region and the world."
