Iraq on high alert: Imminent Israeli airstrikes amid Syrian conflict escalation
Shafaq News/ Iraq is currently on heightened security alert due to the rapid developments in neighboring Syria, where armed factions have declared control over the entire Idlib province and most of Aleppo.
Concerns persist about possible infiltration by these factions into Iraq. However, observers suggest that the "greater threat" may stem from Israel, which could conduct airstrikes on Iraqi factions in response to their repeated attacks on Israeli targets.
Fortifying Borders: Iraq Ramps Up Defense
Ali Naama Al-Bindawi, a member of the Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee, stated that while the situation in Syria is concerning, “Iraqi forces from the Ministry of Defense, other supporting security agencies, and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are on high alert along the border with Syria. Military reinforcements have been sent to al-Anbar province, particularly to the border area, to enhance security and prepare for any emergencies.”
Al-Bindawi told Shafaq News Agency that the Security and Defense Committee maintains constant communication with all security agencies and their leaders, adding that “the committee has scheduled an emergency meeting to discuss the new security situation in Syria, the security situation in Iraq, and military plans along the border with Syria.”
Security expert Sarmad Al-Bayati acknowledged “a slight risk to Iraq due to events in Syria” but emphasized that “sufficient measures have been taken to ensure no breaches occur. These measures include deploying numerous Iraqi units to the border.”
Al-Bayati expressed confidence that “Iraq would not be significantly affected,” citing the “absence of supportive environments for factions and the population's reluctance to repeat the experiences of 2014, unlike some areas in Syria.”
Securing the Line: Iraq's Advanced Border Tactics
Major General Yahya Rasool, spokesman for the Commander-in-Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, confirmed that the Iraqi border with Syria is fully secured, especially the areas in northeastern Syria. He added that “border forces are equipped with the latest weapons and equipment, including drones and thermal cameras.”
Rasool warned that “any person or terrorist attempting to cross the Iraqi border would face a strong response,” noting that “army units are stationed behind the border units and intelligence elements are continuously monitoring any terrorist movements.”
Syria’s Chaos: A Ripple Effect for Iraq?
Syrian armed factions, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, launched an operation last Wednesday, sweeping through villages and towns in the government-controlled provinces of Aleppo and Idlib. In late 2016, Syrian army forces, with support from Russia, Iran, and allied factions, regained full control of Aleppo city after months of bombing and siege, turning the tide against the opposition.
Iraq fears a repeat of mid-2014 when ISIS managed to seize one-third of the country due to the spillover of the Syrian conflict between the Al-Assad regime and opposition factions.
Strategic expert Ahmed Al-Sharifi stated that “Iraq faces a dangerous balancing act that could pose a cross-border threat, particularly since events in Syria are reactivating groups that previously formed the nucleus of ISIS,” indicating that “Iraq faces a significant challenge, potentially leading to a ground battle crisis in Syria, with fighters flowing across the border as one of its repercussions. The Iraqi government's action to secure the border with three army brigades supported by two PMF brigades was a correct measure.”
He pointed out that there are two main axes concerning ISIS: the Rabia crossing, to which combat capabilities have been sent, and the western al-Anbar area along the Qaim-Bukamal line. “While human incursions may not occur, infiltration operations are possible, and Iraq's preventive measures have increased efforts to close gaps.”
Regarding concerns about a recurrence of 2014 events in Iraq, Al-Sharifi affirmed that “there are existing guarantees in the field. Previously, the security and military situation was unstable, but it is now cohesive, and alertness on the border is high. The Global Coalition is currently providing precise electronic coverage for the border line.”
“There is support from US forces, and Iraqi forces are ready with several aircraft prepared to support sectors. Despite political crises in Iraq, there is no supportive environment for factions, and awareness levels are high among the population. Therefore, there is a sense of reassurance on the ground, although it is not absolute.”
Israeli Strikes Loom: Iraq in the Crossfire
The strategic expert highlighted that with escalating events in Syria, “a potential Israeli airstrike on Iraq could occur, particularly following Israel's announcement yesterday of receiving a threat from the east, implying Iraq. If this incident is used as a pretext amid heightened tensions in Iraq, Israeli airstrikes on factions are not unlikely. The recent strike on Qaim-Bukamal targeting factions deployed tactically in the Bukamal area fits into this scenario.”
Al-Sharifi anticipated that Israeli airstrikes on Iraq “might occur in the coming hours, targeting areas where factions are based, including human gathering sites, command and control centers, and offices. These strikes could also occur in populated areas, potentially causing civilian casualties.”
He pointed out that the danger of targeting factions lies in the possibility of their retaliatory actions against bases with the US presence in Iraq. “If Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani cannot stop the factions, it could prompt a military response from Israel, dragging Iraq into a conflict between Israel and factions. There might also be a role for the United States if its interests in Iraq are targeted.”
On Saturday, the Israeli army announced the interception of a drone launched from the "east" before it entered "Israeli airspace." The Israeli army usually attributes attacks from the "east" to Shia factions in Iraq. This is the second interception in the past few hours.
In recent months, the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI)", an umbrella organization encompassing all Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups, launched drone attacks targeting several locations in Israel, including Eilat, “in support of Gaza,” which has been facing Israeli aggression since October 7, 2023. On November 18, Israel reported detecting 65 drone attacks from Iraq since the beginning of the month, with an increase in the number of attacks over the past three months.
