Iraq’s oil production projections for 2025-2026: TAQA platform analysis
Shafaq News/ Iraq's oil productionin 2025 will reach approximately four million barrels per day (bpd) during thefirst quarter, the TAQA platform forecasted on Saturday.
The platform’s analytical reviewnoted that if Iraq adheres to offsetting overproduction beyond OPEC+ quotaagreements, production may settle at 3.880 million bpd.
With the reinstatement of 220,000bpd from Baghdad's voluntary cuts, Iraq's oil production is projected to reach4.012 million bpd in April 2025, with a net output of 3.892 million bpd afteraccounting for surplus production compensation.
In 2024, Iraq’s oil productionaveraged 4.254 million bpd in the first quarter, dropped to 4.214 million bpdin the second, and rose to 4.244 million bpd in the third.
The analysis projected Iraq's oilproduction to reach 4.024 million bpd in May 2025, with compensated output at3.919 million bpd. In June 2025, production is expected to increase to 4.037million bpd, with compensated output at 3.947 million bpd.
The report forecasted furtherincreases, with July production reaching 4.049 million bpd (3.959 million bpdpost-compensation) and August rising to 4.061 million bpd (3.971 million bpdpost-compensation).
In September 2025, production isexpected to reach 4.073 million bpd, with compensated output at 3.978 millionbpd, completing the surplus compensation. In contrast, Iraq’s oil production inSeptember 2024 dropped to 4.143 million bpd, declining further to 4.089 millionbpd in October and 4.043 million bpd in November.
For October 2025, Baghdad’sproduction is expected to reach 4.086 million bpd, rising to 4.098 million bpdin November, with the highest output projected for December at 4.110 millionbpd.
In 2023, Iraq’s average oilproduction decreased to 4.289 million bpd, down from the daily average of 4.439million bpd in 2022, due to Baghdad’s commitment to OPEC+ production cuts.
Iraq’s Oil Production in 2026
The platform's analysis estimatedIraq's oil production in 2026 at around 4.431 million bpd, excludingadjustments for production cuts or voluntary reductions under OPEC+ quotas.
In January 2026, production isexpected to total 4.122 million bpd, rising to 4.134 million bpd in Februaryand 4.147 million bpd in March, with monthly growth of 12,000 to 14,000 bpd.
By August 2026, production isexpected to reach 4.208 million bpd, stabilizing at 4.220 million bpd fromSeptember to December.
