Iraq News Now

Shafaq News/Efforts to disarm non-state actors in Iraq have intensified as internationaland regional players push for a Middle East free from armed groups outsidestate control. UN Special Representative Mohammed al-Hassan’s diplomaticengagements, including consultations with Najaf’s religious authority andTehran, signal an urgent drive to resolve this contentious issue.

Observershighlighted that US demands include the dissolution of armed factions and thePopular Mobilization Forces (PMF) or reforming the latter by placing it under amilitary commander linked to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, ratherthan political entities. The expected resolution involves transforming the PMFfrom a military entity into a security institution and reimagining its internalstructure, balancing its brigades with factions affiliated with armed groupsunder its umbrella.

Impact onIraqi State Security

Security andmilitary expert Dr. Alaa Al-Nashua stated that the UN representative'smovements in Iraq "indicate an international decision to disband the PMF,considering that factions loyal to Iran operate in Iraq." He pointed outthat recent events in Lebanon and Syria, as well as the strikes between Iranand Israel, suggest "a new vision for the region."

"ThePMF threatens the core of Iraq's national security, presenting challenges akinto a direct declaration of war. This places Iraq in a difficult position withthe region and the international community, especially given the new vision forthe Middle East following the end of the so-called ‘Shia Crescent.’International powers are eager to implement changes that include ending allmanifestations of power and armament to create a more secure and stable MiddleEast."

DifferentiatingPMF and Factions

Security andstrategic expert Dr. Ahmed Al-Sharifi explained the distinction between thePopular Mobilization Forces and various armed factions. He clarified that"the Americans demanded the dissolution of the factions, not the PMF,which they view primarily as a supportive force. Therefore, it is essential todistinguish between the factions and the PMF."

In aninterview with Shafaq News, Al-Sharifi anticipated reforms within the PMF,aiming to "organize its affairs and verify its actual numbers, rather thanallowing its management by political entities."

"Thearmed factions shield themselves under the PMF's umbrella. The PMF is legallysanctioned and an integral part of state institutions," he continued,refuting claims that the religious authority, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, opposedlimiting arms to the state. "Al-Sistani, in fact, supports the disarmamentof factions, advocating for all weaponry to be confined within the state'sframework."

"Thisprompted UN representative Mohammed al-Hassan to directly engage with thereligious authority to confirm its stance on restricting arms to thestate," Al-Sharifi said.

Factions asPart of Regional Conflict Equation

Al-Sharifiexplained that "Iraqi factions have become an integral part of theregional conflict equation, acting as an arm of the Axis of Resistance that ispractically engaged with both Israel and the United States, while Iraq isclassified as a strategic ally of the United States."

"Beforetaking office, Iraqi PM Al-Sudani was presented with a set of commitments andassurances in a private meeting with the UN representative and the Americanambassador. Al-Sudani pledged that the factions' weapons would not be used forcross-border operations nor target American presence or interests. However,after the Gaza events, the factions found a pretext and began operating outsideAl-Sudani's commitments."

Al-Sharifiargued that the current situation has reached a critical point where"either Al-Sudani's government falls or he manages to control the fieldand fulfill his commitments to silence the factions. The UN and the Americanambassador have been working on this equation, pushing the government tosilence any activities related to regional conflicts."

"Theissue of silencing the factions now rests solely with Al-Sudani. With thereligious authority's endorsement, it is incumbent upon the PM to demand thatthe factions disarm. Achieving this would resolve the current crisis, avoidinginternal conflict in Iraq and even with the factions themselves."

He furtherexplained that "if the factions disarm and adopt a political stance, theywould become an integral part of the political party balancing act, retainingthe right to express their opinions, including their ideological opposition tothe American presence."

Al-Sharifipredicted that the situation is moving in this direction, noting that"Al-Sudani has yet to express an opinion. Instead, he is maneuveringregionally to create pressure on the United States regarding the demand forfaction disarmament."

"ThePrime Minister's efforts with Saudi Arabia and Jordan have not succeeded, asthe United States will not heed their demands concerning factiondisarmament."

Visits toSaudi Arabia and Jordan

Al-Sharifirevealed the underlying motives behind Al-Sudani's visits to Saudi Arabia andJordan, explaining that "the PM is aware of Iran's regional chokehold andthe evident collapse of the Axis of Resistance. The ongoing Russian withdrawaland downsizing of its bases in Syria indicate Iran's diminishinginfluence."

"Iranwas previously questioned about the behavior of the factions. FollowingAl-Sudani's dispatch of a delegation to Tehran to request the restriction ofthe factions, Iran declared that the factions operate independently and are notlinked to it. This statement effectively absolved Iran of responsibility forthe factions' actions in Iraq, leaving Al-Sudani as the sole figure facing thisissue."

"Al-Sudani,unable to disarm the factions, turned to Saudi Arabia and Jordan to exertpressure on the United States. He aimed to leverage the relationships of thesecountries with the US to persuade it to abandon its demand for the disarmamentof the factions. However, these diplomatic efforts did not succeed as thisinitiative aligns with a new regional design by the US tailored to itsspecifications," Al-Sharifi pointed out.

BlurredLines in Iraq

Politicalresearcher Ramadan Al-Badran explained that Iraq is entwined in regionaltensions, connected to the participation of armed groups within Syria,emphasizing that "recent events in Syria are linked to Iraq in multipleways: geographic proximity, overlapping interests, the presence of Iraqi armedgroups, Iraq's stance on the former regime, and the transition of armed groupsinto power. These factors naturally make Iraq the most affected country bychanges in Syria."

Al-Badran,speaking to Shafaq News Agency, pointed out that the UN mission and theinternational community recognize the danger posed by armed groups' continuedactivity. They assert that a stable Middle East cannot be achieved withoutending these groups' activities and confining military roles exclusively tostate-related entities.

"Iraqis currently in a state of anxiety, with its position on armed groups unclear.Similarly, the armed groups' stance towards the state and their relationshipwith it is ambiguous, creating a gray area in Iraq. This uncertainty could leadto security and political developments both within and outside Iraq."

DiplomaticEfforts to Avoid Conflict

Al-Badranexplained that the UN representative is engaging in shuttle diplomacy todevelop a vision after gathering reactions from all relevant parties. "Hevisited Grand Ayatollah Al-Sistani, whose fatwa was instrumental in theformation of these groups, as they claim their legitimacy from the religiousauthority. Therefore, the religious authority's stance is crucial."

Regardingal-Hassan's visit to Tehran, Al-Badran noted that "Iran provideslogistical and military support to these factions. Thus, Iran must be informedof the developments, as it could be adversely affected by the activities ofthese groups, which openly acknowledge Iran's support."

He explainedthat the region is undergoing "a complex negotiation process involvingstates, armed groups, and their supporters to reach a final decision on thefuture. The alternative is conflict, which could cause significant damage tothose countries or their interests, complicating the situation further. Thispreventive measure aims to avoid more clashes and tensions in the MiddleEast."

"TheIraqi government is in a difficult position because the factions did not emergeindependently but have political backing. These factions, with politicalaffiliations, are part of the state and formed the government. Therefore, thegovernment's decision is tied to political considerations and directly relatedto these factions."

Al-Badranconcluded that "the Iraqi government is in an embarrassing situation,which the international community acknowledges and understands. Consequently,the focus has shifted to other influential entities, such as the religiousauthority and Iran, rather than relying solely on the government to make thefinal decision."

PoliticalSolution Scenario

Nationalsecurity and Iranian studies expert Dr. Firas Elias stated that there isregional and international consensus to avoid creating instability within Iraq.This suggests that a political solution is being sought, as the United Statesrecognizes the importance of maintaining a stable Iraq due to its interests andmilitary presence there.

"Inaddition to the United States, regional countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran,and Turkiye also do not wish to see Iraq descend into security escalation.These countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, have significant stakesin the Development Road project, hence their interest in finding a politicalsolution for the PMF."

Eliaselaborated that "this political solution might provide a sense of reliefwithin Iraq, as it would exclude Iraq from any escalation scenarios in theforeseeable future. The solution would involve establishing a political pathwaythat could reorganize the PMF both politically and militarily or, at the veryleast, eliminate the distinction between the PMF as a state-affiliated forceand Iran-aligned armed factions exploiting the PMF's name to engage incross-border activities, particularly in Syria."

"Discussionsabout the PMF's dissolution are primarily political at this stage, subject tointernal and UN envoy negotiations. The resolution of this issue is anticipatedbecause the PMF, ultimately, is an Iraqi institution requiring an Iraqisolution rather than an international one."

TransformingPMF from Military to Security

Eliaspredicted that the solution would involve transforming the PMF from a militaryinstitution into a security entity. "This transformation will create a newstructure within the PMF, differentiating between PMF brigades and factionsaligned with armed groups, ensuring a purely Iraqi allegiance and arsenal,detached from any external scenarios that could influence internal affairs,particularly involving Israel."

"Israelhas repeatedly threatened to target Iraq in response to strikes by Iran-alignedfactions. These strikes include those on Israel before the fall of Al-Assadregime and recent attacks on the Houthis in Hodeidah, which Israel attributesto support from Iraqi armed factions."

Eliassuggested that Israel is "exploiting this situation to justify potentialattacks inside Iraq," emphasizing that "the Iraqi politicalleadership is aware of this scenario and is working to thwart it before itmaterializes. This awareness drives current internal discussions on securingthe PMF and stabilizing Iraq's security situation, avoiding any extremescenarios that could emerge."

"Theinternal and external maneuvers by Al-Sudani's government are part of politicalstrategies to mitigate potential future risks for Iraq. These efforts aim topreempt threats and ensure the country remains stable amid regionaltensions."

BalancingRegional Interests

Dr. Eliasdelved into these activities, explaining that PM Al-Sudani's discussions aim toshape an Iraqi approach to the Syrian situation. This approach considers Iraqiinterests and the sensitivities of regional countries, particularly Iran.

"TheIraqi government is aware of Iran's concerns and the desires of regionalcountries, specifically Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, to exploit the regionalcontext to reduce Iran's influence. These efforts seek to establish newregional arrangements that enhance their regional interests."

Elias saidthat "the current developments reflect an Iraqi perspective represented byAl-Sudani's government on building a multifaceted Iraqi approach that meetsinternal needs and respects regional sensitivities. This approach aims toenhance Iraq's standing in the future and create political and security stabilitywithin Iraq, avoiding potential future risks."

"UNenvoy's visit to the Najaf authority aimed to garner support for the UN'sstance on securing Iraq against potential future risks. This visit underscoresthe international community's and UN's recognition of Najaf's central andinfluential role in Iraqi politics," he noted, stressing that "thereligious authority has historically played a key role in rescuing Iraq fromcrises. The UN holds high hopes for Najaf's role in establishing a peaceful andbalanced regional approach, influencing ongoing regional conflicts."

Eliaspointed out that while the UN envoy points to Najaf creating an internal andexternal path for Iraq, the religious authority will not strictly controlcertain Iraqi political forces, particularly those with strategic andideological ties to Iran. These forces have their calculations that transcendIraqi borders.

Eliasanticipated "internal compliance by some political entities withNajaf-endorsed UN recommendations. However, external commitments will likely beless binding, allowing these entities the flexibility to secure their internalposition and maintain foreign relations with Iran."

"The UNenvoy's visit to Najaf aimed to outline a roadmap for Iraq's future, fosteringpolitical and security stability. The discussions covered critical issues likearmed faction disarmament, relations with Iran, and the transitional situationin Syria post-Assad regime."

New SecurityArrangements

With DonaldTrump set to be inaugurated as President of the United States on January 20,2025, the region is expected to see new security arrangements. According toNabil Mikhael, a professor of international relations at George WashingtonUniversity, the upcoming Trump administration may introduce new dynamics inhandling the Iraqi file and the developments in Syria.

"Thecurrent American perspective links the security of Syria with that of Iraq.Therefore, any movements in Syria will impact Iraq, and vice versa. The newIraqi government administration, security arrangements, and visits by the UNspecial envoy to Iraq are all significant matters viewed positively by theincoming Trump administration."

"Theprimary concern now is securing the Iraqi borders to prevent extremist groupsfrom infiltrating from Syria to Iraq. Additionally, there is a need to addresssecurity cooperation with Turkiye, aiming for a US-Russian containment ofTurkiye's role in both Syria and Iraq," Mikhael confirmed.