Fragile Peace: Axis of Resistance cautious as Gaza ceasefire enters effect
Shafaq News/After 470 days of intense conflict, a ceasefire agreement between Hamas andIsrael has brought a fragile pause to the fighting. The Axis of Resistance,which had been a part of the prolonged war with Israel now watches thisceasefire with caution.
Terms ofCeasefire Agreement
The deal,mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, establishes a three-phasetruce. According to Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the first phase, whichstarted on Sunday morning, is expected to last six weeks.
It includesthe release of 33 Israeli captives held in Gaza in exchange for 737 Palestinianprisoners. It also outlines Israel's withdrawal from densely populated areas inGaza and a substantial increase in humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave.
According toformer US President Joe Biden, the truce’s first phase aims to avert a loomingfamine in Gaza, as warned by the United Nations. The prisoner exchanges arescheduled to occur on days 7, 14, 21, 28, and 35 of the first phase.
While manyin Gaza celebrated the calm, concerns about Israeli adherence to the terms ofthe deal quickly surfaced. Reports emerged that the Israeli military conductedairstrikes in Gaza just hours after the ceasefire took effect. Gaza’s CivilDefense reported that 19 people were killed and 36 injured in the strikes.
Axis ofResistance Reacts
Factionswithin the Axis of Resistance hailed the ceasefire as a victory for Hamas,which has maintained its presence despite Israel’s attempts to eliminate it.However, skepticism about Israel’s commitment to the agreement remains high.
Abu Ubaida,the spokesperson for Hamas’s military wing, Al-Qassam Brigades, reaffirmed thegroup’s commitment to the truce and thanked regional allies, includingHezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iraqi resistance factions whosupported Gaza’s resistance efforts.
On October8, 2023, Hezbollah launched its first operation in support of Gaza, describingit as a “supportive battle” that would not cease until the war ended.
In hisspeech after announcing the Gaza agreement, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General,Naeem Qassem, described the ceasefire agreement in the Strip, as evidence ofthe resistance’s “steadfastness” against Israel. he also warned Israel “not totest” the party’s patience following continued violations of the ceasefireagreement in Lebanon.
From Iraq,Harakat Al-Nujaba, an Iraqi-based military group within the Axis, announced asuspension of operations against Israeli targets but warned that its missilesremain ready.
During theGaza war, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq targeted US bases in Iraq and Syria,before shifting their focus to Israeli sites.
Salam Al-Jazaeri,a senior figure in the Asaib Ahl al-Haq movement, emphasized that Israel has ahistory of breaching agreements and violating red lines. He confirmed to ShafaqNews that "The Axis of Resistance is closely monitoring Israeli violationsand the ceasefire agreement. While prepared to respond to any scenario at theappropriate time, it is currently giving the sponsoring states of the ceasefireagreement a chance to ensure its success.”
“We remainhopeful for a positive outcome.”
In Yemen,Ansarallah leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi announced that the group would supportthe implementation of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza while maintainingmilitary readiness in case Israel reneges on the deal.
In atelevised speech broadcast by the Houthi-affiliated Al-Masirah channel, hestated, "We will closely monitor the stages of the ceasefire agreement inGaza. Any Israeli backtracking, massacres, or blockades will prompt us toprovide immediate military support to the Palestinian people."
In turn,Brigadier General Abed Bin Mohammed Al-Thawr, a Yemeni military official,warned that any Israeli violation of the ceasefire would prompt a swiftmilitary response from Sanaa.
Yemen, whichjoined the effort to support Hamas in November 2023, imposed a naval blockadeon Israeli ships and targeted over 211 vessels belonging to Israel, the US, orthe UK. By January 2025, the Israeli military reported intercepting 40 missilesand 320 drones launched from Yemen.
Predictionsand Doubts
Observerswarn that the ceasefire’s fragility increases the likelihood of renewedfighting. Political analyst Farhan Musa Alqam told Shafaq News that “Israel isprone to evading commitments during wartime, which is why Hamas demandedguarantees to ensure compliance.”
"TheResistance is fully aware of this reality, which is why it insisted on thenecessity of having guarantees and guarantors to compel the occupation toadhere to the agreement." He told Shafaq News.
As for theresistance's response to Israeli violations, he warned that the Resistancewould “expose the occupation's actions, and lay bare their breaches to justifyits position before taking any escalatory steps.”
Analystsalso predict that Hamas will not immediately retaliate against Israeliviolations but will pressure mediators to hold Israel accountable. If breachespersist, escalation is expected.
ZiadHamouri, director of the Jerusalem Center for Economic and Social Rights,expressed similar concerns, stating, “Israel has never shown genuine commitmentto its promises…If it continues its airstrikes on Gaza, a return to war islikely.”
In aninterview with Shafaq News, Hamouri pointed out that despite the severe massivedestruction in Gaza, the resistance has managed to endure and respond to Israelover the past 15 months, ultimately securing this agreement.
Meanwhile,Salah Abdel Ati, head of the International Committee for Supporting the Rightsof the Palestinian People, added that ensuring Israel’s accountability iscritical. “We hope mediators will force the occupying state [Israel] to adhere to the ceasefire and stop its genocidal war,” AbdelAti told Shafaq News.
"Currently,Israeli violations will be monitored and addressed with the mediators. At thesame time, efforts will focus on recovery and humanitarian responses to thecatastrophe caused by the occupation, ensuring the provision of necessarysupplies for civilians, supporting social stability, and addressing the healthneeds of the wounded and sick, along with other humanitarianaspects."
Mediators’Role and Challenges
Egypt,Qatar, and the United States now face immense challenges in ensuring theagreement holds. While Egypt facilitated the negotiations, Qatar’s guaranteesand financial support remain crucial. The United States, a key ally of Israel,must balance its support for Israeli security with pressure to adhere tohumanitarian obligations.
IsraeliPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, backed by the US, described the ceasefire as“temporary” and reserved Israel’s right to resume hostilities if deemednecessary.
Now, mediatorsare expected to monitor violations and push for de-escalation, but theirinfluence may wane if Israel opts for aggressive actions.
Analystsbelieve that continued Israeli airstrikes on Gaza or failure to adhere to theprisoner exchange terms could provoke a coordinated regional response. Theysuggest that while the Axis factions prefer maintaining the truce, they remainprepared for escalation if Israel’s actions cross critical thresholds.
