3 scenarios for Iraq under Trump, including 'Guardians of the Regions'
Shafaq News/ Iraq is expected toenter a new phase soon, shaped by the upcoming US policies under PresidentDonald Trump. He aims to implement a new regional project that highlights thecreation of new security formations, widely referred to as the “Guardians ofthe Regions.” The project itself is not entirely new but resembles thestructure and function of the Peshmerga forces in the Kurdistan Region.
The scenarios for implementing thisproject range across three possible directions, either as individual strategiesor combined approaches. These scenarios fall within the realm of politicalimposition or the use of force and cannot be separated from Iraq’s regionalsituation, particularly the trajectory of US-Iran relations.
This regional project is part of abroader shift towards a new international system, a product of the “US-Russiansettlement”, with the first phase unfolding in Syria. This is a culmination ofvarious outcomes, as explained to Shafaq News Agency by strategic expert AhmedAl-Sharifi. "The features of the new regional system are many, includingliberal capitalism and systems that guarantee multiparty politics or federalsystems," according to Al-Sharifi.
With the emergence of a new securityand military reality, where the "Guardians of the Regions" play acentral role, Al-Sharifi predicts the decline of ideologies and militias, whichwill reflect on Iraq as a US ally. However, its factions remain part of thepolitical landscape, a unique situation in the Middle East.
Al-Sharifi stressed that PrimeMinister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani is under pressure to resolve this issue, yetall indicators suggest that "Al-Sudani is unable to resolve it. He isbetting on time, making promises, but in reality, the factions have notresponded to him."
From the US perspective, Al-Sharifibelieves that the US military and security policies will steer toward what istermed "regional security," aligning with international peace andsecurity. This could push the US to implement these policies through coercivemeans, including the use of force. He does not rule out the possibility ofWashington employing force in the near future, marking a turning point for theMiddle East and establishing a new equation.
Three Scenarios for Iraq
Some experts rule out the use offorce. Haitham Al-Hayti, a political science professor at the University ofExeter in the UK, predicts that "the US will pressure Iraq economically,politically, and legally," and suggests that this pressure could lead toone of three scenarios:
• ScenarioOne: Change through elections under US conditions, which could shift theelectoral path to align more with US desires and, partially, public demands.This would support Iraq in achieving elections and internal concessions,pushing Iraq out of the gray area of closeness to Iran and aligning more withthe US
• ScenarioTwo: Partial change through imposing sanctions on hardline figures within thecurrent political system, potentially removing certain factions while keepingothers. This may include Israeli strikes on certain sites supporting thesefigures, which could face sanctions.
• ScenarioThree: A radical change, though difficult to implement.
US political affairs specialistAqeel Abbas links US policy on Iraq to Washington’s approach to Iran. In aninterview with Shafaq News, Abbas explains that if a quick resolution is notreached on contentious issues between the US and Iran, "Washington willresort to economic sanctions, which will also affect Iraq," he predicts,adding that Israeli military strikes against armed factions are possible.
New Deterrence Levels
Military options cannot beoverlooked in the coming situation. This is not only about Iraq but also thewider region. Military expert Alaa Al-Nashou believes that US militaryleadership in Iraq is crafting plans based on developments in the region. He said,"The US maintains important military bases in key strategic locations,allowing for rapid intervention."
Al-Nashou explained that the mostcrucial US military moves in the region include establishing bases in strategiclocations that provide military and security advantages, ensuring swiftresponse times. He believes that US control over the region, including Iraq, issecured, "no matter the enemy’s strength, as it ends with direct strikesfrom US aircraft, the strongest and most advanced in the world."
Regarding potential military routesthe Trump administration might pursue, Al-Nashou states that they would bedriven by economic and security factors, including "Israel’ssecurity," and the use of new deterrence levels targeting countries likeIraq, Yemen, and Iran.
US Military Presence In Iraq
Nabil Mikhael, a professor ofinternational relations at George Washington University, pointed out that Trumpdoes not want a significant Iranian influence in Iraq, nor does he want a largeTurkish presence in Syria. "This is the strategic equation the Trumpadministration will deal with in the coming phase," Mikhael explains toShafaq News.
Mikhael does not expect an earlywithdrawal of US forces from Iraq, suggesting that the US military and civilianpresence in Iraq will be linked to developments in Syria. He does not rule outcontinued US-Iraq consultations, with the possibility of Trump inviting theIraqi Prime Minister or Foreign Minister to visit Washington.
Regarding this issue, MohammedHassan Rady, a member of the Iraqi Parliament’s Security and Defense Committee,told Shafaq News that "the agreement on the withdrawal of US forces fromIraq in 2026 is binding and not open for renegotiation." When asked whatmight prevent its implementation, he said that the new US leadership may adjustit slightly according to its vision, but "the US strategy is generallyfixed, and changing it is not easy."
Rady concluded that Iraq is tryingto maintain the current security and stability, and "we are waiting forthe coming days and what the developments in the region, especially in Syria,will bring."
