"Unity of Fronts" resurfaces: is Iraq drifting into regional conflict?
ShafaqNews/ Iraq's response to escalating regional tensions has been marked by twocontrasting positions. On one hand, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has renewedits readiness to fight Israel, while on the other, the Parliamentary Securityand Defense Committee has emphasized that any Iraqi involvement in foreignconflicts must be tied to an Arab or international decision, rather than aunilateral stance.
Observersspeculate that the return of the "Unity of Fronts" concept could seeIraqi factions re-engage in the conflict, potentially leading to Israelioperations under a different pretext or even US collaboration against Iraq.
However,some argue that the idea of a "unity of fronts" is no longerfeasible, given the setbacks faced by key forces in the so-called Axis ofResistance, such as Hezbollah, which has reiterated its commitment to theceasefire agreement with Israel despite the return of Israeli strikes on Gazaand the onset of US airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen.
Theterm Unity of Fronts first entered common parlance in May 2021, followingHamas' battle in response to Israeli actions in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhoodof Jerusalem. However, its practical application became more evident afterHamas launched the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Despite claiming to beunaware of Hamas' operation, leaders of the so-called Axis of Resistance openedfronts in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq to support Hamas in its battle with Israelover Gaza.
Now,the situation has returned to a similar state, with a fragile truce in Gazacollapsing due to renewed Israeli attacks. Simultaneously, large-scale USmilitary operations have begun against the Houthi movement in Yemen, describedas a response to threats against international maritime navigation, though USofficials also noted these strikes were in retaliation for Iran's backing ofthe Houthis.
Thisregional escalation has also been taking place in Lebanon, where the Israelimilitary launched dozens of airstrikes in southern Lebanon and the Beqaaprovince response to three rockets fired from southern Lebanon, which wereintercepted before reaching the Israeli settlement of Mettula along the border.
WhileHezbollah denied any involvement in the rocket attack and reiterated itscommitment to the November ceasefire, Israeli officials instructed the militaryto respond, holding the Lebanese government responsible for the incident.
Withthe region's fires potentially reigniting under Israeli decisions, the questionremains: Will the "Unity of Fronts" return?
PreemptiveWar on the Horizon?
MahdiAl-Kaabi, a senior leader in the prio-Iranian Al-Nujaba movement (HarakatHezbollah al-Nujaba,) classified the US strikes in Yemen as "a preemptivewar to protect Israel." In an interview with Shafaq News, he acknowledgedthat all scenarios, including a full-scale regional war, remained on the table.
"IslamicResistance forces have been on full alert since the launch of the Al-Aqsa Floodbattle, and are prepared for any escalation.”
Meanwhile,Iran continues to reject any negotiations with the US over its nuclear programunder the threat of war, according to its officials. Amid the shiftinglandscape of regional alliances, a source told Shafaq News that the head of theIslamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Major General Ismail Qaani, conducted abrief and unannounced visit to Iraq, where he met with the leaders of theCoordination Framework, including the Popular Mobilization Forces.
Themeeting, according to the source, concluded with an emphasis on Iraq’scommitment to neutrality, particularly about the Syrian conflict, whilereinforcing the importance of maintaining security and preventing actionsoutside the state's framework.
Qaanireportedly conveyed an Iranian message to the Iraqi government, advising it topreserve its balanced stance and refrain from aligning with one party againstanother.
Inthe event of an Israeli strike on Iraq, the source added, "Iran will notremain silent and will support any stance or response from the Iraqi governmentor armed factions."
Adherenceto International Norms
Memberof the Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee, Ali Nima Al-Bindawi,affirmed Iraq's commitment to international laws, stressing in an interviewwith Shafaq News that no political party or armed faction could undertakemilitary operations without the government's official approval.
"Iraqwill not involve itself in external conflicts but will focus on enhancinginternal security and protecting its sovereignty," Al-Bindawi said,emphasizing that any participation in foreign battles must be "an Arab orinternational decision."
Dismissingtalk of Iraq's independent involvement in foreign wars as "mediaconsumption,” Al-Bindawi expressed confidence that Iraq would avoid becomingembroiled in regional conflicts, noting that Iraq's foreign policy had managedto shield the country from escalation. "
Iraqwill not become an open arena for conflicts," he concluded, referring tothe situations in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.
"Unityof Fronts": A Likely Return?
AsIsraeli and US military operations continue to intensify, security expert AhmadAl-Sharifi believes that the region is heading toward regional clashes,increasing the likelihood of a return to "Unity of Fronts." Hedescribed the strategy as "a deterrent framework employed by Iran and itsallies to prevent direct targeting."
Al-Sharifinoted that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani's government faces difficultchoices, caught between its ties to the Coordination Framework — which grantedthe government parliamentary legitimacy —and the challenge of containing armedfactions and preventing cross-border operations, a situation that could cause"political and military embarrassment with the US".
"Thefactions will not remain passive; they will opt for confrontation to supportthe Palestinian cause," Al-Sharifi predicted, suggesting that Israelioperations, potentially with US support, against Iraq could be forthcoming.
Thisaligns with recent reports from Shafaq News, which revealed that US DefenseSecretary Pete Hegseth conveyed a stern warning to Prime Minister al-Sudaniduring a phone call last Sunday, stating that any involvement by Iraqi factionsin US strikes on the Houthis in Yemen would trigger a swift military responseagainst those factions within Iraq. Hegseth emphasized the urgency of resolvingthe issue of disarming the armed factions, a matter reportedly receivingsignificant attention from President Trump and his administration.
Withmilitary escalation ongoing in Gaza, Yemen, and Lebanon, and mountingindications that Iraqi armed factions may repeat its interference in theconfrontation, analysts predict that the next phase may witness increasedIsraeli strikes against targets inside Iraq, particularly if factions actacross borders. Such a development could mark a dangerous new stage in theregion's volatile dynamics.
In the face of these challenges, Iraq’sgovernment is confronted with a delicate balancing act between maintainingdiplomatic equilibrium and navigating internal and external pressures, as theregion edges closer to a new era of heightened tensions with potentially widerand more perilous repercussions.
