Exclusive: Behind the scenes of Qaani's secret visit to Baghdad
Shafaq News/ The "secret" visit by Iran's Quds Forcecommander, Ismail Qaani, to the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, signals the "greatconcern" Iran feels about Iraq as part of its vital sphere and nationalsecurity standards.
Against the backdrop of recent developments in Syria, Tehran sees theneed to coordinate positions to confront the "US-Israeli" projectknown as the “New Middle East”. According to many observers, these shifts couldextend from Syria to Iran or Iraq.
This concern is reinforced by Iran's launch of "Great Prophet19" drills last Saturday, during which "rapid response" militaryscenarios were implemented in the Kermanshah province, and a region on theIraqi border.
At the same time, the Israeli military entered a state of heightenedalert, "in preparation for potential sabotage operations by Iran in thecoming days," according to Israeli Army Chief of Staff, Hertzi Halevi.
Israeli media reported that this decision followed reports indicatingincreasing internal challenges to the Iranian regime, particularly afterTehran's proxy forces in Lebanon and Syria were affected.
Israeli security sources quoted by Israeli media claimed that"changes are underway in the strategic balance of the Middle East, throughboth military actions and economic programs" fueling Iranian officials'concerns about the region's future and its impact on their strategic vision.
Qaani's visit to Baghdad last Sunday came amid these developments, withthe objective of "exchanging views on the current regional situation andcoordinating stances," according to political analyst Sabah al-Akili.
Speaking to Shafaq News, al-Akili stated that after Iran and Iraq'scooperation against ISIS, there is now a proposal to form a joint committee forinformation exchange and counter-terrorism that threatens the region,especially as “terrorist groups have become aligned with the US”.
Iranian officials close to Tehran have expressed concerns about theregion's instability, particularly based on what they perceive as movements bywhat they describe as "terrorist and sectarian groups" and the"US-Israeli project" for the “New Middle East”, which may target Iraqor Iran in a potential effort to divide the region, according to al-Akili.
He also revealed that "there is a plan to partition Syria intoKurdish, Druze, Alawite, and Sunni regions, with Iraq potentially being part ofthis project." Al-Akili also called for unified stances to confront whathe described as a conspiracy that threatens not only Syria but the entireregion, explaining that "Qaani's visit came at this critical time."
Abdul Rahman Al-Jazaeri, a leader in the National Al-Kasam Movement,emphasized the importance of Qaani's visit to Baghdad for both sides, given thecurrent complexities in the region.
In an interview with Shafaq News, Al-Jazaeri disclosed that Qaani'svisit delivered messages to Iraqi resistance leaders after the Iraqi governmentexerted pressure on factions regarding the issue of weapons being in the handsof the state. This occurred after the visit of United Nations representative,Mohamed al-Hassan, to Iraq's top religious authority, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
An informed source speaking to Shafaq News said that Qaani's visitlasted only a few hours, during which he met with Iraqi Prime Minister MohammedShia' Al-Sudani to discuss regional developments.
The source revealed that Qaani assured Al-Sudani that Tehran does notwant to be part of the conflict and war, emphasizing that Iran does not objectto any decision regarding the future of armed factions in Iraq.
Concerning Qaani's meeting with armed faction leaders, the source notedthat Qaani "stressed the importance of supporting the Iraqi government inthe current phase and abiding by its decisions." This occurred duringmeetings in which Qaani and faction leaders discussed regional securitydevelopments, particularly in Syria, and their effects on the resistance axis.
In an analysis by the Iraqi Political Thinking Center, led by Dr. IhsanAl-Shammari, there is mention of an Iranian attempt to "develop plans tospare Iraqi armed factions further losses, particularly after the recent stanceof the leader of the Al-Hikma Movement, Ammar al-Hakim."
Al-Hakim had said in a speech last Friday that the region is undergoingtransformations that require caution and vigilance, preparing for any suddenchanges that might threaten Iraq's security and stability, and its core values.
The Political Thinking Center's analysis suggests that demands fordismantling armed factions and restructuring the Popular Mobilization Forces(PMF) could pose a significant risk to Iran's influence in the region. Thesedemands have caused a deep division within the “Coordination Framework”, withopposition to dismantling armed factions likely outweighing the support for it.
The analysis concludes that one of Qaani's objectives was to menddivisions within the Coordination Framework and present a unified stanceagainst what Iran perceives as US and Israeli pressure on Iraq.
The analysis also estimates that Tehran is highly concerned aboutmeasures related to tracking its financial and economic assets in Iraq, whichcould cut off a major resource for Iran. Additionally, the potential collapseof the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel presents a significant risk,possibly making it one of the topics Qaani addressed in Baghdad.
As US President Donald Trump nears the start of his second term, thePolitical Thinking Center's analysis considers preparing for Trump's approachto Iran as one of Tehran's top priorities. Therefore, Iran is seeking closercommunication with its allies, particularly Iraq's armed factions.
The analysis predicts that Qaani may have received a message from Syriathrough Iraq following the visit of the head of Iraq's intelligence services toDamascus and his meeting with the transitional phase leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa.
It also speculates that Qaani's visit may be part of preparations forthe upcoming visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al-Sudani to Tehran,where he is set to meet with Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
According to Al-Sudani's media office, the visit will includediscussions on bilateral relations and ways to strengthen them, following thevisit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshekian to Baghdad in September, as wellas ongoing regional developments.
