Iraq News Now

Shafaq News/ Iraq’s first nationwidepopulation census in over three decades has revealed a population of 45.4million, according to preliminary results announced by Prime Minister MohammedShia al-Sudani. The survey, which also gathered data on housing and employment,shows key demographic changes, including a decrease in family size and a largerworking-age population.

Census Results

PM Al-Sudani announced on November25 that the initial findings from the country’s first population census indecades reveal Iraq’s population has reached 45.4 million. The census,completed last week, marks the first comprehensive survey of Iraq's populationand housing since 1987, delayed by wars and political disputes in theethnically and religiously diverse nation.

Speaking at a press conference,Al-Sudani stated, “The population stands at 45,407,895, including foreignersand refugees.” He added that 60.2% of the population falls within theworking-age group, defined as individuals between 15 and 64 years old, signalingIraq’s entry into what is termed the “demographic dividend.”

The demographic dividend is theeconomic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s agestructure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) islarger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65and older).

Al-Sudani noted that children under15 years constitute 36.1% of Iraq’s population, while the average householdsize is 5.3 members.

Moreover, the annual populationgrowth rate currently stands at 2.3%.

Preliminary census data also show anearly even gender distribution, with males accounting for 50.1% of thepopulation and females 49.8%. Women head 11.33% of households, while men head88.67%.

He also highlighted the populationdistribution by age, noting that 36.1% are under 15 years old, while only 3.7%are above 65 years.

The census revealed that Iraq has8,037,221 housing units. Of these, 92.1% are standalone houses, 6.6% areapartments, and 0.4% are traditional mudbrick homes.

Al-Sudani emphasized that theseresults are preliminary, with final results pending further qualitative dataanalysis.

“The preliminary results of thecensus were largely consistent with international expectations that the UnitedNations relies on for population estimates,” according to Mahdi Al-Alaq, anadvisor to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in Iraq.

Regarding the Kurdistan Region, DaraRashid, the Kurdish Minister of Planning announced that the population hasreached 6,370,668, including foreigners.

Speaking at a press conference,Rashid clarified that these preliminary figures from the national census do notinclude residents of disputed areas. He noted that the population comprises3,200,506 males (50.4%) and 3,170,162 females (49.6%).

The data reveal that 84% ofKurdistan’s residents live in urban areas, while 16% reside in rural regions.The region also has 2,028,000 housing units.

Rashid noted that only 4.4% of thepopulation is aged 65 and above.

While these preliminary figuresoffer a glimpse into Iraq's demographic trends, the census process is stillongoing, with key stages yet to be completed.

Population Census Reaches KeyMilestones

Ali Aryan Saleh, Executive Directorof Iraq's Population Census at the Ministry of Planning, stated thatthree-quarters of the census process has been completed, with the secondphase—family registration—finished.

The third phase, which involvescollecting detailed individual and household data, is now underway. “TheMinistry of Planning will present the final results to policymakers to guidefuture strategies.”

Saleh noted in an interview withShafaq News that the current data show a decrease in family size, from 7 to 5.7members. “This decline may be attributed to factors such as reduced marriagerates.” Despite this, he emphasized that the population has stabilized assuringthat there is “no population explosion or crisis.”

Doubts and Issues SurroundCensus

Soad Al-Maliki, a member of theParliamentary Strategic Planning Committee, explained that the nationalpopulation census was divided into three stages: the first involvedregistration and numbering, followed by the family record stage, which facedrestrictions. The final stage, deemed the most crucial, focuses on identifyinghousing needs, income, employment, and other factors to develop solutions.

Al-Maliki pointed out that someissues were encountered during the census, noting concerns raised regarding theaccuracy of figures in Kirkuk and Mosul, where some Kurdish residentsreportedly returned to register their data. “This claim remains unconfirmed,but data is being reprocessed and verified, with this process expected tocontinue until December 10.”

Khaled Al-Sarai, head of theNational Media Observatory, expressed skepticism about the census process,calling it “a necessary but flawed undertaking.” He argued that Iraq may be oneof the countries “most in need of such a survey, but the body responsible forthe process was unprepared, leading to noticeable errors.”

“The census did not capture thedynamics of the Kurdistan Region’s influence on Kirkuk, a city crucial forIraq’s stability,” Al-Sarai told Shafaq News, pointing to political tensions,with some groups seeking to extend their influence, “they take more than theirfair share.”

“There are also issues that shouldnot be avoided, such as nationalism, but it seems that the removal ofnationalism is linked to attempts by certain parties to expand."

He also criticized the census teamsfor failing to reach Al-Zubair district in Basra, as reported by the governor,“inaccurate data would result in flawed outcomes.”

Additionally, Al-Sarai raisedconcerns over the cost of the census, which amounted to 600 billion Iraqidinars (About $458 million), and the fact that a Jordanian company was hired toconduct the survey instead of using Iraqi expertise. “This raises suspicionsabout the handling of sensitive data by a foreign entity.”

Economic and Housing Challenges

Demographic expert Samir Khudairvoiced concerns about the census findings, particularly regarding the highunemployment rates, which he believed “will pose a major challenge in creatingjob opportunities, especially for young people and graduates.”

“Housing is another significantissue, as providing adequate housing for families, along with essentialservices like electricity and potable water, remains a critical need.” He toldShafaq News.

Khudair explained that Iraq’sreliance on oil as a single economic source exacerbates these challenges,suggesting the government diversify the economy by boosting sectors such asindustry, agriculture, and tourism while supporting the private sector to absorbthe unemployed.

“Policymakers need to consider thecensus results when designing future economic programs for the country.”