Iraq News Now

Shafaq News/As regional transformations continue to expand, Iraq appears to be directlyaffected by some of these changes. Many observers expect a wave of shifts inIraq following the inauguration of US President Donald Trump on January 20.

"Changesare inevitable, and Iraq will be part of the new Middle East." Thispivotal statement is echoed by many analysts predicting the near future.

In aninterview with Shafaq News Agency, Ihsan Al-Shammari, head of the PoliticalThinking Center, believes that Trump’s strategy toward Iraq will differ fromhis approach during his first term. "It is not possible to discuss areturn to maximum pressure and direct intervention on Iraqi soil at thispoint."

Al-Shammarisuggests that the Trump administration’s approach to Iraq will unfold onseveral fronts: “First, targeting Iran's allies and diminishing their influencein Iraq; second, dismantling these factions, either by their consent or throughlisting more of them as terrorist entities; and third, restricting financialassets and tracking the economic fronts of these factions.”

There iswidespread expectation that Trump’s strategy will aim to sever ties betweenIraq and Iran. "Trump will not rely on the gray area that Iran's alliespreviously maneuvered within," Al-Shammari states. Therefore, Iraq’scurrent and future governments will need to clarify their relationships withthe United States, as Trump will not accept a government hostile to Americaninterests, he says.

Since the2003 invasion of Iraq, relations between the US and certain Iran-backedfactions have been tense. This tension escalated under Trump’s presidency,particularly after pro-Iran factions staged protests and stormed the US Embassygates in late 2019, in response to US airstrikes targeting the Iraq HezbollahBrigades (Kataeb Hezbollah) group near the Syrian border, which killed dozens. Al-Shammaripredicts that Trump will adopt a more aggressive strategy compared to Biden’sadministration.

Whileawaiting Trump’s administration’s vision for Iraq, it is anticipated that itwill align with Israeli calls to end Iranian influence. "Iraq is likely tobe part of the new Middle East, regardless of Iraq's internal positions,"Al-Shammari concludes.

InevitableChanges

Observersare also concerned that Israel will find ample space to implement its policiesin the region, potentially pushing Arab governments to bear the cost.

Dr. JalalGeraghi, an academic and researcher in Iranian and regional affairs, arguesthat "changes in the region are inevitable during Trump’s presidency, andthese changes will be to the benefit of the Israeli entity."

In aninterview with Shafaq News, Geraghi predicts that Trump "will overcome theobstacles faced by the Biden administration, especially since he worksindependently and sometimes disregards official US rules."

Someobservers based their predictions on Trump's desire to end wars, hoping theregion would move toward peace and stability. However, Geraghi believes thatthis will not come at the expense of Israel, for which Trump will work to serveits interests.

Meanwhile,some specialists remain skeptical about Trump’s ability to fulfill his promisesof peace and ending wars. They do not rule out regional confrontations,particularly as the coming days are marked by rising regional politicaltensions.

HusseinAl-Momaani, director of the Strategic Studies Center at the University ofJordan, told our agency, "It is too early to judge the course of Trump’ssecond presidency," as most judgments and expectations are based on hisfirst term. He predicts that in 2025, many variables in the US and globallywill influence Trump’s policies, meaning he "will not revert to hisprevious strategies."

Turkishpolitical analyst Jawad Jouk also anticipates a scenario of tension. Speakingto Shafaq News, he predicts politically tense days "due to US threatsagainst Iraqi political parties aligned with the resistance."

Followinghis election as president last November, Trump addressed several regionalcrises with a tone of threat, including his warning that "hell will breakloose" in the region unless Hamas releases Israeli prisoners before hisinauguration on January 20.

The regionalfiles that the US administration is heavily involved in, from Iraq to Syria andLebanon, are generating considerable regional anticipation regarding Trump’sapproach. In this context, Dr. Hadi Issa Daloul, an international law expert,told Shafaq News that Trump "will turn the occupation of Iraq into an investment,creating a confrontation between the new authorities and ISIS under the pretextof protecting civilians." As for Lebanon, Trump will seek to appoint apresident and prime minister who support U.S. policies, according to Daloul.

Lebanon hasbeen experiencing a vacuum in the presidency for over two years, while Syria isentering a transitional phase after the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, withthe region waiting to see how things unfold there amid internal tensions, whichopposition groups claim stem from the new regime’s actions against certainSyrian factions, while the new government maintains that these actions areaimed at combating remnants of the former regime and those involved in crimesagainst the Syrian people.

Someanalysts draw a connection between Iran and Iraq in their analysis of Trump’spolicies. They argue that exerting more pressure on Iran requires substantialpressure on Iraq due to its significance for Iran on multiple levels.

Jordanianpolitical analyst Hazem Ayad explains Trump’s expected handling of Iraq andIran, "Trump wants to exert more economic and political pressure on Iranand may resort to military threats."

Thus far,Washington has exempted Iraq from the usual economic sanctions imposed onentities dealing with Iran, with US exemptions focused on the import of Iraniangas and some trade transactions.

"Thispolicy gained momentum after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and evolvedinto an attempt to exert greater pressure on Iraq to further tighten theeconomic and political constraints on Iran," Ayad believes.

However, theambiguity surrounding the Syrian situation could complicate matters for theTrump administration, especially as it may create more complexities inUS-Turkiye relations or Washington’s dealings with Syria’s new government overthe fate of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria."This file could ease US pressure on Iraq," Ayad suggests.

Recentmeetings between Syria’s new authorities and representatives of the KurdishAutonomous Administration aim to address the situation and define the future ofSDF-controlled areas, but no outcomes have emerged from these discussions yet.

Ayad expectsthe US administration to rely on its military bases in Iraq to maintain itspresence, ensuring a certain balance with Damascus. "These bases are alaunchpad for US activity in Syria."

Ayad alsobelieves that Trump’s approach to Iraq will be volatile, especially when thesituation reaches the brink of war and exhaustion, although this does not meanthat "Trump will not use tough tactics in Iraq."

As forregional rapprochement and its potential impact on Iraq, Ayad believes that ifthis happens, it would strengthen these countries’ positions in dealing withthe US, as cooperation among these countries limits Trump’s maneuvering room."This will require Iraq and Iran to take the initiative with Syria andTurkiye in the coming phase," he points out.

Ayadconcludes that "cooperation requires substantial dialogue between theregional parties, Iraq, Turkiye, Iran, and Syria. This step is still lacking atthe pace needed, which could hinder US efforts."

WhileIranian-Turkish relations appear stable, as well as Iraqi-Turkish andIraqi-Syrian ties, Iranian-Syrian relations have been tense since the fall ofal-Assad’s regime.