Iraq's shuttle diplomacy: Securing stability amid Syria's tumultuous crisis
Shafaq News/ Iraq's high-levelshuttle diplomacy has intensified, positioning the country as a pivotal playerin the region’s shifting dynamics. Amid rising security concerns, especiallyfrom Syria’s unrest, Iraq is strengthening ties with neighboring countries andglobal powers to safeguard its stability and shape a collective approach to theregion's future.
Intense Diplomatic Visits
Over three days, Iraq and itsneighboring countries witnessed a series of high-level diplomatic visits. Thesequence began on December 10 with US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Gen.Michael Erik Kurilla traveling to Syria, followed by a stop in Baghdad for ameeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani. Shortly after,Al-Sudani flew to Jordan to meet with King Abdullah II. After bidding farewellto Al-Sudani, King Abdullah swiftly took off for the UAE to meet with SheikhMohamed bin Zayed.
Upon returning to Baghdad, Al-Sudanihosted a delegation from the US Department of State for further discussions. Hethen received a phone call from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,followed by a meeting with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and hisaccompanying team. Later, the PM took a call from British Foreign SecretaryDavid Lammy.
Meanwhile, UN envoy MohamedAl-Hassan met with Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, Iraq’s foremost Shia cleric.Al-Sudani then reached out to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. Thediplomatic cycle concluded with the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visitingTurkiye before arriving in Baghdad for talks with Al-Sudani.
In this regard, Fadi Al-Shammari,Political Advisor to Al-Sudani, told Shafaq News agency, "Iraq's shuttlediplomacy reflects intensive activity that strengthens its role as a centrallink among various regional parties. This comes amid rapid and criticaldevelopments in the Middle East, particularly concerning Syria, which shares aborder with Iraq."
“Iraq has taken proactive political,security, and military measures to protect its national interests, whileprioritizing the stability of neighboring countries and remaining aware of thePalestinian issue, as its people endure massacres by the Israeli war machine,”he added.
Moreover, Al-Shammari affirmed,"Through visits, Iraq aims to create a shared regional and internationalvision for Syria, supporting its stability and encouraging the establishment ofa democratic political system that respects social diversity and the rights ofall Syrians."
He pointed out, “Amid the currentregional circumstances, the Iraqi government seeks to assert its diplomaticpresence in the region and enhance the balance among various powers,contributing to the overall stability of the region.”
"Iraq understands that Syria'srevival and its role as a cornerstone for regional stability require genuineinternational cooperation, which Baghdad is working to foster through itsongoing diplomatic efforts,” he concluded.
Behind the Scenes
Dr. Munqith Dagher, the CEO andfounder of the Independent Institute of Administration and Civil SocietyStudies (IIACSS) research group, asserted that the recent and ongoing movementsin the region are a direct result of the situation following the opposition'scontrol in Syria. "Everyone is concerned about what is happening in Syriaand the potential threat from extremist factions to Iraqi and regionalsecurity," he told Shafaq News.
He highlighted the significance ofAl-Sudani’s visit to Jordan, noting that both Iraq and Jordan share a borderwith Syria. "Amid movements by terrorist groups in this area, along withconcerns and intelligence reports about possible threats, caution andcoordination are necessary… Actions should not be taken individually,"Dagher emphasized.
Looking ahead, Dagher predicted,"In the coming days, the region will witness new alignments, agreements,and security arrangements, and perhaps even a new axis."
In turn, the Iraqi Centre forPolitical Thought offered insight into the ongoing diplomatic exchanges."The visits are numerous and reciprocal, but each one has its ownsignificance," it explained. The center pointed out that Al-Sudani’s swiftvisit to King Abdullah II is closely tied to regional developments and thepossibility of Iraq playing a pivotal role in shaping an Arab response to theSyrian crisis. "Arab countries are increasingly aware that the collapse ofIran and the Al-Assad regime has created a significant vacuum in Syria.Therefore, they believe it is in their interest to fill this void, especiallywith other nations, such as Turkiye, Israel, and the US, also pursuing the samegoal.”
The center also stressed theimportance of Al-Sudani's communications with Saudi Crown Prince, which aim tocraft a “unified” Arab approach and push for an Arab summit to establishinitiatives. "Countries are awaiting the response from Syria's transitionalgovernment," it said.
Regarding the visit of the Germandefense minister, the center described it as a step toward solidifying thefuture course of cooperation with the Global Coalition. It also highlightedongoing negotiations to secure bilateral agreements between Iraq and Germany,as well as with other coalition members. "The German defense minister’svisit served to further this agenda, including discussions on a weapons dealfor the Kurdistan region," the center added.
On the recent statements by State ofLaw Coalition Head Nouri al-Maliki and Badr Organization Secretary-General Hadial-Amiri, the center noted that the fall of Al-Assad "was a major shock tothe Coordination Framework (CF) leaderships and forces." It pointed outthat these groups now recognize the looming threat to Iraq, especially withIsrael's focus on successive geographical wars. "They are deeply concernedabout Iraq's future," the center said.
This concern is compounded by"Israeli threats to target Iraq, the 'delayed strike,' and theinternational actions surrounding Iraq, including those from the US and the UN,alongside calls for political system reform." Consequently, "the CFleaderships believe Iraq is moving toward change," it concluded.
Earlier, Al-Maliki stated that"Iraq and its security forces, in all their forms, are capable of facingchallenges and the potential movements of ISIS and the Baath Party in light ofthe developments in the region." He also accused Turkiye of contributingto the fall of Al-Assad's regime in Syria. Meanwhile, al-Amiri described theevents in Syria as "a Zionist-Turkish project with Americanapproval," and claimed that "the Turks and the Zionists are two sidesof the same coin," calling the situation in Syria a "stain on theTurkish conscience."
Iraq in the Equation
Political analyst Yassin Aziz warnedthat the fall of al-Assad's regime in Syria marks not the end, but a criticalshift in the region’s tumultuous political landscape. "What happened inSyria and the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime will not be the final phase ofthe events shaking the region, which are expected to redraw its politicalmap," Aziz told our agency.
Aziz stressed that Iraq isinevitably part of this redefined equation. "Iraq will not be outside thisequation, facing a real threat to its security and stability if the state failsto manage its position through its institutions and avoid being drawn into atargeted regional project."
He further highlighted that recentdiplomatic movements by the Iraqi PM, particularly after the message deliveredto Iraq's top religious authority by the UN Envoy, were designed to shield Iraqfrom emerging threats. "The visits and movements of Al-Sudani aim to avertany danger to Iraq," Aziz noted, adding that a unified Arab response iscrucial to halt Israeli aggressions on Syrian territory following Al-Assad'sdownfall.
For his part, Dr. Ruben Salam, apolitical researcher, also emphasized Iraq’s delicate position in this shiftinggeopolitical environment. "Iraq, represented by Al-Sudani, is trying toprotect Iraq from the fires burning in the region, especially before DonaldTrump officially takes office as US president on January 25, 2025," Salamexplained.
Moreover, Salam speculated thatTrump’s first actions in office would be focused on increasing pressure onIran. "Predictions suggest that Trump will sign 25 decisions on his firstday, and these initial decisions will not include Iraq but are aimed atapplying more pressure on the Iranian regime. However, by the second week,these decisions will target Iraqi funds used to finance militia activities andsupport the 'Resistance Front.' Therefore, it is expected that Iraqi funds willbe restricted, and Iraq may return to the Oil-for-Food Program," Salamsaid.
The political researcher concludedwith a stark warning for Iraq's future. "Iraq faces three difficultoptions: increased pressure on the Central Bank of Iraq, along with threatsfrom ISIS and Israel."
